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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If someone asked me 10 years ago what I'd be doing in the future, Answering questions on Jensen + Spys banging each other and implications on the AI trade would not be in mind My response to that question is: how am i supposed to know? On AI trade implications: $NVDA probably wanted to sell more chips anyway (to China) for revenue and it's extremely unlikely this person had any effect on trade policies. The relationship might not even be true... anyway I'll wait until more news comes out.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So two things: 1. I'm now fundamentally positive on $IREN post Mirantis acquisition and after their recent earnings. Their operating outlook and ability to finance has looked more compelling. 2. That doesn't always translate to appreciating share price and ROI to shareholders. I have caution regarding their existing $6B ATM, which now has $2.37B left (so they have been going through it). As well as CEO executive compensation, which I'd argue would be more beneficial if this were done through appreciating share prices rather than dilution. Obviously optics on their NBA Warriors deals are very bad while they're unprofitable... but I'd treat this as noise relative to the scale of the ATM overhang + executive comp. So a lot of weighing different float + market dynamics vs. operational business, but I'd argue this is something that still can be addressed.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Even with current narratives like biotech eg. $TWST, there's 100%+ Y/Y growth from their AI testing segment with Anthropic. But if you look at company overall revenue projections, they're only calling for double revenue growth by 2031 (implying 15% annual growth). I'm sure they can beat, but this seems relatively slow compared to AI supply chains growing hundreds to 1000% Y/Y and seeing record levels of net income growth Q/Q. Not all bottlenecks have the same economic impact the way hyperscaler capex in AI supply chains does.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks
FOUR · long

Shift4 Payments INC

Shift4 Payments trades at roughly 5 times a $7.50 2029 free-cash-flow-per-share estimate after stock compensation.

FOUR $3.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $12B
Hated Moats 3 clicks

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