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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My cost averages are a lot different. My memory longs were once up +450%, but many are probably down to +50-100% unrealized. I still hold those. Just tax lost harvesting a bit of my $AAOI position over time was a few million realized losses (I'm still long, this is just tax related stuff each month) Can say the same for a lot of other names. There's a lot of volatility and risk management in between, but I think they'll perform well in 2027.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Some industry commentary regarding a few claims recently on memory + Softbank Turbine defaulting. - On claims that LTAs are "meaningless while prices fall": $MU: "strategic customer agreements cannot be unilaterally canceled. Customers are obligated to pay for their committed volumes whether they take delivery or not" "These are take or pay agreements and there are no contractual outs for our customers from these agreements" Regarding historical contracts breaking: "These LTAs that we used to have never had any binding terms." The new SCAs contain extensive contractual obligations Regarding Elon's claims on Softbank defaulting on Turbines: Question from Morgan Stanley to $GE Vernova CEO on whether they see cancellations or financing difficulties with counterparties on their turbine orders: “No… we are not” TLDR: - Micron states LTAs/SCAs are noncancellable take/pay (where counterparties are hyperscalers). And that these types are different from historical memory cancellations. - On Softbank turbine orders, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said it wasn't seeing customer financing disruptions, requests to exit turbine reservations, or slowdowns. Maybe Elon's claims are more narrow, but should be evaluated more closely given competitive interests vs. Softbank/OpenAI.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.

Investor Letters

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks
VEEV · long

Veeva Systems INC

Veeva Systems is a vertical software company valued as if its best growth years are behind it.

VEEV $49B
Value Investors Club

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $13B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

When the Ads Come to the Data

Meta’s Muse could place ads inside its AI agent by letting a private VM select offers from advertisers without sharing user data with…

META $1.6T
MBI Deep Dives 7 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $92B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks

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