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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

It’s sad to see X and media turn so extremely negative That there’s now arguments made for “Take or Pay” noncancellable memory LTAs being cancelled. $MU: “strategic customer agreements cannot be unilaterally canceled. Customers are obligated to pay for their committed volumes whether they take delivery or not.” When talking about breaking LTAs from previous historical events: “These LTAs never had any binding terms.” Then there’s TMZ style coverage on $NVDA CEO relationships To misleading cancellations between $MSFT and $ORCL when they were from 2023… Every single day now from the media. Elon Musk posting something negative about Neoclouds to the Korean/Japanese memory companies doesn’t help either. Even today there’s something about SoftBank defaulting: $GE Vernova CEO on whether they see cancellations + financing difficulties on counterparties or turbine orders “No… we are not” Maybe there’s some non-public info not released yet? But I found find it strange that an OpenAI competitor would disclose this I’m personally fine with the volatility, and it’s fine if people have bearish arguments. But the level of misleading commentary or unsubstantiated accusations has hit a record level. And when you see the damage this causes to individuals lives in Japan to Korea to Taiwan. It’s very sad to see.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.

Investor Letters

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AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 1 click
DLTR · long

Dollar Tree INC

Dollar Tree is long after divesting Family Dollar, separating its stronger banner from its weaker business.

DLTR $26B
Value Investors Club

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $15B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $575B
Rebound Capital 9 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $76B
Doomberg 13 clicks

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