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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Toast's $TOST President and CFO Elena Gomez, who took it public in 2021, is leaving on December 31, the same day its CRO steps down to retire. She gave notice on October 28, and the board named SVP of Finance Michael Senno to succeed her the same day. Senno joined $TOST in 2022 after running investor relations at South Korean e-commerce company Coupang $CPNG, and his bio lists no prior CFO job. CRO Jonathan Vassil, who has led $TOST's sales since 2017, gave notice on September 28, and no successor has been named. The day after Gomez gave notice, the FTC and eight states sued $TOST, alleging the restaurant software and payments company hit customers with (1) hidden and unauthorized fees, (2) add-ons they didn't ask for, and (3) subscriptions that are hard to cancel. $TOST says the law the FTC sued under doesn't apply to negotiated business contracts, and it plans to fight the case in court. Nothing in the filings ties either exit to the lawsuit, and both executives stay on as employees into 2027, so I read the exits as planned, not forced. But two of $TOST's five executive officers leaving the same day, as an FTC fight starts, is a lot of change at once. None of the executive turnover shows up in the numbers yet: $TOST just reported its most profitable quarter ever, with $169M of net income and $240M of adjusted EBITDA, above its $210-220M guide. $TOST also raised its full-year EBITDA guide for the third time this year, to $840-850M from $775-795M in February. Hardware is still the soft spot: Its gross loss widened to $85M from $57M a year ago, and the $225M lost through September already tops all of 2025. Gomez said in May the memory-chip cost hit would be bigger in 2027 than in 2026, and Senno will own the 2027 numbers. At ~$32/share after hours, $TOST trades at ~20x this year's raised EBITDA guide, down from ~22x at $34/share in my August 10 update. With a new CFO, no named sales chief, and an FTC suit, I'd rather see three things before calling the exits a non-event: 1) Guide: Whether Senno's first, for FY2027 in February, is as conservative as this year's quarterly guides for 22-24% recurring gross profit growth, which $TOST beat with 27-28%. 2) Net adds: Whether net new locations stay above the 30,000/year my thesis needs without Vassil, after ~25,000 through September. 3) FTC: What the Q3 10-Q says about possible losses, and whether $TOST changes its contract terms.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

With $AXTI, even if demand was cut 50%, they'd still likely be sold out. Since customers are asking for 3x+ their contracted volumes. I'd argue InP substrates are just as severe as lasers. In just 90 days, $AXTI literally went from: Q2 backlog: $100m Q3 backlog: $500m+ With an extra $300-$400m+ from ordinary business, not multi-year agreements from $LITE / $COHR. I'm sure there's some double ordering but the materials are just so cheap relative to overall BOM, that it's spare change.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

For companies like $SIVE / $AAOI, the demand imbalance for lasers are so severe That even a 20-30% overall demand reduction from a hypothetical DC slowdown would likely not eliminate the shortage. We're seeing this before the next architectural shifts, where $NVDA Jensen Huang expects 15x optical volume for CPO scale-up. And as more hyperscalers commit to NPO as seen with $LITE new $5B UHP laser contracts. I'd argue this is more nuanced since I can't say the same for finished 800G/1.6T pluggables or lower end 70mW-100mW laser ranges that are currently bottlenecks. But this argument is more toward higher spec lasers. $AAOI is vertically integrated and has 300-400 mW capabilities, so they have the capability to shift attention to merchant lasers over supplying end-to-end optical transceivers. $SIVE is more pure play on this laser bottleneck, but they have the capabilities for 200mW + higher margin multiwavelength NPO/CPO lasers. I'd argue this is specifically the case for bottlenecks where demand imbalances are so deep (creating higher long term visibility, such as HBM). Whether it's large body substrates from $ATS that's bottlenecking Marvell + $AMD or lasers from $LITE that are sold out into 2029. or liquid transformers that have 4-5 year lead times. They they would still sell out of capacity even if overall demand decreased. If markets de-risked, it would make sense to hit optical module manufacturing players, maybe server rack assembly, to companies that still require heavy financing like Neoclouds. And obviously haircut growth valuations (but not to the point where demand collapses to 0). Yet we're seeing everything in AI trade is getting lumped up together as something that requires heavy financing + not profitable.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

If a company is valued at $2B, has ~$1B in cash/inventory... And makes $354M FCF a quarter. Then returns 30-50% of FCF for dividends next year. I'd argue it's more of a matter of time before shareholder returns/fundamentals, (especially memory) overpower forced selling. But stock prices can look really dislocated from actual performance for periods of time, like now. Same with photonics, but that's more of a 2027-2028 growth type story with CPO + more optical content/xpu. Laser companies like $LITE, $AAOI, and potentially $SIVE depending on quals, would likely be printing few years after capacity expansion comes online. And it's already been largely funded... Lumentum with $NVDA + hyperscalers, AOI with $1.6B+ in ATMs, Sivers with 700M SEK from institutions. Compared to other sectors that still require a lot of capital for their buildouts.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Not a surprise, but still encouraging. The Zelda remake from $NTDOY has a 96 right now on metacritic. It comes out today. No one seems to talk about 7974/$NTDOY because there's no Mario title this year, but putting out a remake of arguably the best video game ever made and then matching its excellence in front of a major motion picture release seems like it's good for revenue, earnings, and cash flow. I don't think investors understand the #zelda fan base. or maybe #nintendo in its entirety. @firstadopter

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ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

AppLovin 3Q26: Business Update

AppLovin's 3Q26 revenue rose 55% year over year and margins reached 78.2%, driven by AXON model gains, while publisher bidding pressure…

APP $118B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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