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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Mary Barra continues to show that she is the GOAT of the automotive industry. Despite the big pullback in $GM stock today, over the last year: Ford is essentially flat Rivian $RIVN is down 5% Tesla $TSLA is down 16% Stellantis is down a whopping 60% GM is up more than 30% Pulling back the curtain 10 years, Ford generated no returns (not taking dividends into account) and Stellantis lost a third of its value. GM is up 139% over the last 10 years. Barra took on the role of CEO in January 2014 after being with the company since 1980. Obviously the ten year return pales in comparison to the returns of Tesla or the NASDAQ over that time but she has continued to do a great job in a challenging industry that has undergone tremendous change since Tesla transformed the landscape.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

If scale-up uses VCSEL arrays, we think Lumentum ($LITE) would compete with several vendors, eroding its valuation's scarcity premium. Many smart investors are bullish and credit Lumentum with an exclusive ability to make ultra-high-power CW (continuous-beam) lasers for scale-up links between AI chips. If those links go wide and slow (many small VCSEL or microLED emitters, each at modest speed), that case could break down. Lumentum's own Open Compute Project demo used VCSEL arrays from its smartphone 3D-sensing manufacturing platform. The demo is an in-rack proof of concept, not a replacement for every higher-power laser. Credo ($CRDO) opened a workstream with a hyperscaler and ams OSRAM to standardise wide, parallel links, citing supply-chain resiliency, targeting 2027 approval. VCSEL arrays are tested on the wafer, so they are cheap in volume. The standard would let operators buy from Coherent ($COHR), ams OSRAM and others. In that case, we think Lumentum competes on scale and cost, not scarcity: customers can switch, pricing power and margins come under pressure and share must be won. Near-term earnings can still benefit from the laser shortage, with Lumentum sold out through early 2029.

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ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

AppLovin 3Q26: Business Update

AppLovin's 3Q26 revenue rose 55% year over year and margins reached 78.2%, driven by AXON model gains, while publisher bidding pressure…

APP $118B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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