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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@MaiusPartners

Maius on X

Compute and infrastructure expenses are expected to reach ~$13.0bn in Q4 as the $SPCX contract ramps. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to reach $18.6–20.3bn in Q4, up ~10–20% QoQ, with the competitive environment and holiday seasonality as potential headwinds. That puts revenue per compute dollar at ~1.5x. Meanwhile, roughly $80/$120bn of payments are against disclosed commitments in 2027/28 that help underwrite the entire global AI trade. The harder question is how quickly and profitably can API usage grow next year? Coding has been a clear winner. But sustaining growth requires either deeper usage within the industry and/or broader deployment across other high knowledge-intensive industries (finance, healthcare, legal). For the former, a ceiling is emerging, especially when sophisticated clients choose to train their own models to avoid the closed-source tax (e.g., Palantir). For the latter, those opportunities are large but much harder to capture, as turning them into reliable production systems requires data integration, domain-specific knowledge, corporate and regulatory approvals, and sometimes an entire organizational workflow redesign. Anthropic’s own $100m program to train 10,000 deployment engineers illustrates the work still required. However, wherever you look, the most sophisticated industry players choose to train their own models, e.g., Harvey AI using Kimi. Given this dynamic, it's not hard to paint a scenario where the“revenue per dollar of compute” metric continues to decline further in 2027 as industry capacity ramps, and hence one can see why the market is becoming extremely skeptical of the entire AI trade, given the labs are essentially underwriting the entire semiconductor industry at this stage. Where am I underestimating the upside: usage intensity (AGI? Humanoid Robots?), deployment speed in legacy industries? Or the entire cost curve?
@Adam_Wyden 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

$DRVN Full year numbers DIDNT CHANGE in our view. They mentioned restatement costs of at least $50mm and the midpoint of restatement before was 40... My guess is incremental restatement cost is 10-20.. So if the restatement is high might have even been a beat... Take 5 comp was 4.9 pct and holding two year stack in 4q would imply 8.5 pct... this seems like a kitchen sink to me. Franchise brands and auto glass both look good too.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

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