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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Compute & Accelerators screen (43 names). Our Rule of X = forward growth x a sector coefficient + free cash flow margin - SBC %. The coefficient starts from Bessemer’s 2.3 for software and is scaled by how much profit a sector earns per $ of growth versus its cost of capital. More profit and cheaper capital means growth counts for more. Compute mostly runs 2.3 to 2.7. Colours: green = high score, cheap, or price down (more upside from here). High score + attractive valuation + flat or falling price: $NVDA (DCF 91% discount), $AVGO (94%), $ASML (EV/FCF 24.8x). High score but priced for it: $AEHR (EV/GP 95x), $AMD (EV/FCF 125x). Data from Koyfin, prices at 30 Oct close. A screen, not advice. Do your own research.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

More on #nicotine: While the market potential in the US is many times larger than in Sweden and Norway, the dynamics are very different. In Sweden, the market is mature and largely saturated, with pouch growth mostly cannibalizing Snus. In the U.S., it is more fragmented and experimental. The large players include Philip Morris $PM’s Zyn, British American Tobacco $BTI’s Velo and Altria $MO’s On!. There are some niche brands, of which Alp is the most notable because of its promotion by Tucker Carlson. It is owned by a JV between Tucker and Turning Point Brands $TPB. TPB is widely covered in our Discord channel, mainly by KEDM subscriber @stonksbusinessman.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Icahn owns ~33% himself if you count the Nomura swaps. The new Ares credit agreement limits buyers to 35% of shares outstanding, so $MNRO can let the poison pill expire and Icahn can immediately move the Nomura swaps to himself OR he could keep them as swaps and add another 16%+ of shares instead.... I digressed there a bit, but the initial point was going to be that they already technically own essentially 50%. DOMO Capital owns 1-2% of the outstanding shares as well...
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Jassy said that $AMZN capex will increase meanigfully in 2027, which we know is off a base of $220B in 2026. Before the AI build, the average annual capex increase was ~$9B. A "meaningful" increase in 2027 would be $90-100B or so, putting 2027 capex around $315B. Given that OCF has also increased nicely, approaching $200mn annually exiting this year, and +34%. At what point does the story, or will it, become about 2028 and 2029 positive FCF inflection? Even if capex stays high (say $300B which is crazy but who knows), assuming OCF growth continues which seems reasonable, we start to look at substantial FCF most likely hitting in 2028. There's a path to $450B in OCF (2029/2030) (less $300mn in capex equalling $150B in FCF. It's also possible that capex intensity of the build phase steps DOWN, just given the size of this spend. What if 2030 capex is back to $220B? We are looking at run rate FCF of $230B annually which is $23 in fcf/share. This is the map that Jassy and Bezos see. Its a long term plan and it does not match with the short term-focused market. But if they execute, the map is highly compelling and does justify today's spend cycle. Note that the highest FCF ever for AMZN prior to this cycle was $26B. So we are looking to spend for 3-4 years to 9-10x FCF on the other side.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

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