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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

Interesting setup in $VOYA ahead of Q3 earnings and TCIM’s November 24 no-confidence referendum. Can certainly see a path to $150+ in a strategic takeout given the quality of the retirement franchise… My hesitation is how much activist premium is already embedded in the stock. Shares are up ~30% since TCIM surfaced in April, and the referendum is non-binding. If Q3 disappoints and the activist fails to gain traction, hard to see why this couldn’t trade back toward the pre-activist ~$75 level. Love the potential upside, less convinced by the asymmetry at ~$97… Thoughts welcome.
@SouthernValue95 1 click

SouthernValue on X

Ramp data shows VC-backed companies are spending 10x more per employee/month on AI vs. PE-owned and other companies. A bearish interpretation could be: token spend is being driven by VC-backed companies, making demand vulnerable to swings in capital cycle. Valid! However, on a longer timeframe, I think this is quite interesting as a leading indicator for the direction of software companies (VC-backed companies are mostly software or service-as-software companies). New companies are being built with a larger ratio of tokens vs. humans. Look at Anthropic itself, which pays 1/6 as much on intelligence as its customers (since it sells tokens marked up at 85% GM): Anthropic is spending ~9x more on compute than human salaries despite having access to tokens at cost. Cash payroll is annualizing ~$2B for a company with ~$60B of run-rate revenue in 1H26. Anthropic employs just 5k people. Wild efficiency in human capital. I suspect that the great software companies of the next decade, both new and incumbent, will insert AI into every aspect of their products so that using them feels like magic, and work happens seamlessly. Building a presentation in Claude feels like magic: I tell it what I want to put on a slide, and it appears like magic. As a user of Ramp, their products feel the same way: I make a purchase, take a picture of a receipt, and the expense is logged into my accounting system appropriately without the need for a human to type into a blank box. I think we will see most software become AI-native or be replaced by software that is. This is a significant opportunity for incumbents and startups alike. And I think this is a huge source of future token spend that will go to $AMZN and $GOOG where most software companies are built (on AWS and GCP) and where AMZN and GOOG are building the platforms for software companies to build AI capabilities into their products with choice around compute and model, embedded safety and governance, and unlimited scale. Amazon CEO @ajassy said on a podcast this week that AI spend is currently a "barbell-shape" with insatiable compute appetite of the AI labs on one side, and corporates using AI for cost savings on the other. In the middle is tokens embedded into "core workloads" which he says is growing but small today, but he thinks in 5 years might be the biggest category of token spend.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

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