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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@Fierce__beast 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

Here's the J-curve stock shape -- many examples of software stocks and high growth stocks, sometimes even large mature companies that release a new product. $MPWR was shaping up for this in November 2024 (I wrote about this and went long) when it dropped a lot after they "lost $NVDA" marketshare, but of course their custom AI accelerator business was growing something like 100% a year, and it was only a matter of time before it showed up in the earnings. It subsequently re-rated after troughing at 35x and had significant earnings growth. Today it goes for 35x again. Will there be another big bump in a few years, maybe robotics?
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

This is the shape of many AI related beneficiaries that I think is the most likely path, a few bumps along the way of course, but more or less the path: $AVGO is an interesting example it has expected EPS growth that looks almost exactly like this, but it doesn't trade for 67.5x, it trades for 20x, which seems to imply that earnings growth rate expectations will pretty dramatically slow down within the next 12-24 months. This doesn't seem likely to me. Of course when I say expected EPS these views are extrapolations of near-term trends and discussions about long-term demand, but all i am making a point about is that if $AVGO's estimates actually materialize roughly like the consensus estimates think, the stock should probably be at least 100% higher.

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