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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too. I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028. The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E. But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung. I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally. $AAOI is capitalizing on a bottleneck with high demand visibility, but stock has been going nowhere near-term with repeated ATMs. I do expect AOI to strongly outperform (especially in 2027) if they stop issuing these stupid ATMs.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I would have a much more favorable view on $IREN after they finish their $6B ATM in terms of stock performance (I think they're like 41.5% through). I think Mirantis acqusition would materially shift a lot of perception of how they rank relative to $CRWV, $NBIS, Lambda, Tensorwave, and others in terms of cluster performance once they finish integration. I've always started software side of things is actually a moat (backing up what Coreweave CEO was saying), which was what $IREN lacked before. But M&A to get that gap fixed is probably the most bullish part of what they've done.

Investor Letters

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