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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

I tried to work out who’s behind the AI data labeling companies that approached Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA). CEO Randy Chou didn’t name the data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) or the customers behind them. “If a data labeling company’s coming to us, somebody behind them is asking,” Chou said, adding that the customer typically isn’t limited to cybersecurity companies. OpenAI is one potential candidate, since my previous write-up concluded that the frontier model Nubeva got access to in September was most likely OpenAI’s, through its Daybreak program for vetted defenders. OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra on September 3, 2026, the day Nubeva announced its access. It’s the first model OpenAI rated Critical for cybersecurity capability. But access to OpenAI’s model wouldn’t prove OpenAI is also behind the data labeling companies, since any lab building cyber models could want labeled malware. Among data labeling companies, three of the largest are publicly recruiting or selling binary analysis expertise, the skill of figuring out what malware programs do: → Scale AI: Its product manager posting calls the cybersecurity portfolio “a product line that does not exist yet” and says the hire will recruit “malware analysts.” → Turing: Sells CyberBench, security tasks for training and testing frontier models, with malware analysis and reverse engineering among its ten categories. TechCrunch called Turing “a key coding provider for OpenAI” in March 2025. → Mercor: Recruits security experts, preferring reverse engineering or binary analysis backgrounds, and counts OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta $META as customers. OpenAI cut ties with Scale in June 2025, after Meta bought 49% of Scale and hired its founder, Alexandr Wang. So if OpenAI is behind the approach, Turing and Mercor are the likeliest data labeling companies, since both sell to OpenAI and already sell or buy binary analysis expertise. Either way, these data labeling companies are worth $2.2-29B, so even Turing, the smallest, could pay the top of my $12-19M sale range for Nubeva for less than 1% of its last valuation.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

A small but interesting one. Bombe AM disclosed a small stake in Mobile Infrastructure $BEEP and is thinking about taking BEEP private. The Chairman and CEO, Manuel Chavez, and the CEO, Stephanie Hogue, are Bombe partners. No price has been offered yet, as Bombe wants due diligence on property performance, capital needs, and capital structure before setting a premium (not our words). BEEP owns and operates parking lots. Shares have been under pressure as earnings don't cover interest expenses. The thing is now trading at roughly 0.5x book, and it looks like their parking lots are being aggressively amortized on the books.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

AI swarms could make network security more important. Anthropic's October 12 research ran an AI model across 15 cheap Android TV boxes at 0.39 tokens per second. The small models still couldn't reliably complete the full replication cycle. I think we're still early. Inference on this hardware is painfully slow. But the idea is interesting because human-level intelligence isn't necessary for something to reproduce and spread. Think of insects: limited individual intelligence, yet populations can spread widely. An AI worm could carry its model with it, adapt to unfamiliar devices and use compromised hardware to run the next copy. A model too large for one device could be split across several. Better processors and more memory in future cameras, TV boxes and other connected devices would make more local inference possible, wherever attackers can gain access. That creates a security problem beyond installing software on individual devices. You're not going to put an endpoint security agent on every camera or TV box. You need to identify those devices through the network, restrict what they can communicate with and isolate them when compromised. A perimeter firewall alone cannot inspect traffic that never passes through it. I think $FTNT could benefit here. Its agentless device discovery and network segmentation fit this problem, especially across distributed sites. More capable AI on unmanaged devices could increase demand for those controls. The opportunity also extends to networking vendors that integrate security into switches and wireless access points, where they can control how devices connect and communicate.
@stockgutter 1 click

SG on X

I am a skeptic of the current quantum companies but cannot ignore that $IONQ just doubled its cash hoard from $2B to $4B, selling shares/prefunded warrants at $40 (above market) covered 2:1 by warrants with a strike at $69.46. Not a bad move imo. While I agree with critics that the warrants are a bit oppressive, shitcos will have to pay up one way or another to raise $$ in size. There are worse structures. No position in IonQ rn, but considering selling long-dated calls in the 2x inverse ETF $IONZ - I think the underlying will participate strongly in any junk bounce towards year end.

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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