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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

We think the market is pricing in too steep a growth slowdown for $AVGO. In Q3 FY26, Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, roughly 56% of its $29.6 billion total revenue. In the same quarter, AI revenue grew 221% year over year, compared with 86% for total revenue. As AI accounts for more of the business, it has a greater influence on consolidated growth, so models that assume Broadcom's growth must slow each year risk missing this change. Our valuation work suggests that the market is pricing in revenue growth of approximately 66% in FY26 and 62% in FY27, followed by a 20% compound annual growth rate in years three to seven. Our view is that this assumes growth slows too quickly. Our base case gives more weight to the customer pipeline and management's outlook for the AI business. On that basis, we estimate Broadcom's total revenue could grow by 100% in FY27, compared with the 62% the market implied, with growth remaining well above the market's assumptions as we approach 2030. We increased Broadcom's portfolio weight from approximately 2.2% to 3.4% because we think the market underestimates both how fast Broadcom can grow and how long that growth can last.
@convequity 4 clicks

Convequity on X

We think hardware manufacturing and chip costs, more than launch, will decide how much $SPCX earns from orbital compute. Our SPCX model estimates how much orbital compute can be made and launched, what it costs and what it earns as it ages, then adds that revenue to our forecasts for SpaceX's launch, Starlink and Cursor businesses in our SPCX DCF. Each year, deployment equals the gigawatts of solar and AI computing hardware the supply chain can make for orbital data centers, capped by what Starship can carry. In our base case, launch is the tighter limit only in the first four years of the forecast, and manufacturing is the limit after that. Our base case puts chips and racks at about 80% of the cost to build each gigawatt and launch at about 11%. Solar arrays, satellite structure and laser communications make up the rest. Because chips make up most of the cost and launch only a small part, whether SpaceX uses merchant GPUs, custom chips or makes its own chips at Terrafab will matter more to returns than how cheap launch gets. Revenue per gigawatt depends on the business model, and we assume it is higher for selling AI services through an API than for renting out compute. Revenue falls as the hardware ages, and we assume each satellite is replaced after a 7-year life. The model's price-cut settings let us test price competition. We think Chinese companies could use their own launch and computing infrastructure to offer cheaper AI services internationally, pressuring the prices U.S. AI companies charge and what they can pay for capacity. The U.S. and China could also tie access to their AI services to defense and trade relationships. Countries with ties to both, including India and some Middle Eastern states, could keep access to U.S. and Chinese providers and negotiate lower prices.
@BrokenMoats 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Have to at least acknowledge rate reversal and move into low quality and retail/software today...... But oil/diesel/soft commodities/transportation all staying bid, find this more positioning over extended om rates then durable change (especially with the data and the still unresolved issues causing the inflation) AI sold off I think is what is driving both moves in rates (more out needs a home) and retail/rate sensitive/software were the funding shorts (see sectors and components today) ......but geez at these prices an easier trade I think is to fade software/retail then guess next stop on AI and funding.....the are correlated (for now) anyways. Go through the sectors and components and sort by % gain today almost stacked ranked from worst business (biggest intraday gain) to quality at the bottom.....tells you whats going on. Some might say low quality always leads on a reversal.....this is not a start this is after a stealth sharp move higher for $ARHS $ETSY $EBAY $KSS $SHAK $WMT $CBRL $APPN $DOCU $IT $FRSH $BSP etc.

Investor Letters

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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