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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

$FLEX looks interesting into the Axiom spin in Q1 2027. I think everyone can agree RemainCo is worth somewhere in the $40s, so the only real disagreement is what value to assign Axiom. You’re getting a cloud and power infrastructure business growing at gangbuster rates (80%+ FY28 revenue growth) that just raised $2bn of convertible preferred from General Catalyst at a $37.5bn EV… Meanwhile, at ~$77, the market is implying Axiom is worth ~$33/share. Some SOTP estimates have it north of $100. Obviously there are legitimate concerns around capex, working capital and FCF conversion, but that’s a pretty enormous disconnect. November 10 Investor Day should be interesting…
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.

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FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

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