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BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt weighed on earnings.

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

People on X (now YC companies included) learned that it’s easier to doompost for impressions. $SPCX + Elon wouldn’t be heavily building in the Neocloud space if they didn’t see the ROI. Samsung wouldn’t be selling 5-10Y LTAs to Chinese big tech, if Alibaba/Tencent/Bytedance saw memory overflooding in 2 years. $LITE wouldn’t be sold out into 2029 and announce new $5B UHP laser contracts if optical demand didn’t persist. It’s interesting seeing the very same people long $SNDK, $NBIS, to $COHR 2 months ago. Flip flop on every market narrative from the initial Iran War to the current “AI Bubble”. I’d argue 180x fwd P/E cybersecurity and biotech stocks are more of a bubble than 3 P/E memory companies with hyperscaler LTAs.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Fluence Energy’s $FLNC CEO, CFO, and chief customer success officer just left on October 30, effective immediately, six weeks after its fourth guidance cut in 19 months! The press release says CEO Julian Nebreda, CFO Ahmed Pasha, and John Zahurancik “stepped down.” But the 8-K says all three will be eligible for benefits under $FLNC’s executive severance plan, which only pays out on an involuntary termination or a “good reason” resignation. So I read the exits as the board pushing all three out. The interim CEO and CFO come from $FLNC’s two co-founders and major shareholders, Siemens $SIEGY and $AES: → Interim CEO Axel Meier: Retired in June as CFO of Siemens’ Smart Infrastructure division and has been a $FLNC director since January 2020, through all four guidance cuts. → Interim CFO Ricardo Roizen: A former CFO of AES Andes, a Chile-based AES affiliate, seconded for up to 90 days unless extended, with AES Andes still paying his salary. With Bernerd Da Santos, AES COO from 2017 to 2023, running operations since September 15, Siemens and AES veterans now hold $FLNC’s CEO, CFO, and COO seats. Nebreda, Pasha, and Zahurancik all came from AES as well, so the board hasn’t turned to outsiders for the top three seats, at least until its searches for a permanent CEO and CFO finish. AES also buys $FLNC’s systems and negotiates change orders and settlements with $FLNC, so the interim CFO is now on a customer’s payroll. $FLNC also delayed its FY2027 guidance. Pasha said on September 16 that $FLNC planned to provide “a detailed business plan and a financial update for fiscal year 2027” when it reported FY2026 results. The November 2 release now says FY2027 guidance “is expected to be provided at a later date.” So the FY2026 results on November 23 will show how Q4 went, but not how much of the ~$2.9B of backlog scheduled for FY2027 $FLNC expects to deliver. The release says $FLNC is prioritizing profitable growth “through disciplined pricing and a streamlined cost structure,” which I read as fewer low-margin orders and cost cuts. At ~$5.40/share, $FLNC trades between the $3.93 bear case and the $7.67 low end of the base case in my September 21 update. Would you say replacing Nebreda and Pasha was overdue? But with an interim CEO, a CFO on loan from AES, and no FY2027 guide, I’d rather see three numbers before giving the new team any credit: 1) Revenue: Q4 vs. the ~$810M the September guide implied. 2) Houston: Output at the contract manufacturing plant behind most of the September 16 cut, vs. the 11 units/day it was supposed to run. 3) Cash: The balance as of September 30, vs. $365M as of June 30.

Investor Letters

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks
GPC · long

Genuine Parts CO

Genuine Parts trades at roughly 9x EBITDA as cyclical weakness and elevated NAPA investment temporarily depress earnings.

GPC $17B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Thinking Notes

AI capex rests on coding-centric benchmarks, cheap-model commoditization and circular financing: OpenAI’s $60 billion annual Oracle…

ORCL $383B
Bearstone

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

PYPL $49B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter

Rebound Watchlist: July 2026

Rebound Capital's July 2026 watchlist puts AeroVironment and Coinbase under review after UnitedHealth rose more than 70% from its low.

COIN $36B
Rebound Capital

New Position: Volatility Merchant

A digital market-infrastructure platform dominant in rates and expanding in credit trades at 22 times free cash flow, with 45%+ FCF margins…

TW $29B
Aurelion Research

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