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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$INMD has 8.5/sh of cash, a 14.5/sh stock price, and around my estimate of .7/sh of eps after accounting for capital requirements and excluding interest income. If this is right, that means it's trading around 8x p/e (6/.7) for just the operating business. Even if you thought it should only be 4x p/e (3/.7), that's 3$ of downside (20%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Vice versa, if you thought it should be 12x p/e (8.4/.7), that's 2.4$ of upside (16%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Suppose a rational stock market investor requires a 9% return, and if he valued a stock at 8x p/e, that multiple would be consistent with a perpetual earnings decline around 3% annually. For a 4x p/e that rate would be closer to 13%. Should we value INMD's future cash stream at an 8x NTM P/E, above, or below? INMD's earnings seems to be declining much faster than 3% annually, even faster than 11% annually. There seems to be a lot of competition, a lot of issues with their strategy, constnat negative revisions, constant missed promises and dissapointments. Wonder what's going on underneath
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

But if returns on capital are declining for everyone, the choice is whether to eat or to be eaten? $T is willing to subsidize fiber as a loss leader to protect their wireless margins. $CHTR / $CMCSA are likewise willing to give away wireless to protect their broadband margins… which comes back to the question: which is stickier, your phone or broadband line? I think $CMCSA works because of the spin unlock and sheer strength of their balance sheet. $CHTR is a very long dated call option with more risk, but much more upside if broadband losses attenuate and/or they allocate capital intelligently (although $CHTR’s balance sheet is more levered, there is tremendous optionality in its duration, cost and structure).

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When the liquidity does not add up

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CVX Earnings Review

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Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

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Value Investors Club

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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