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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$IMXI now father from deal price than pre deal price. Market obviously saying deal won’t get done. I get AI treadmill math if 10x 2025 Owners Earnings (36m) but H1 2026 annualized is only 10m, FCF for H1 was like 60m due to pre paid wires working Capital benefit. What is interesting is the amount of interest and suitors that made in far before $WU agreed to buy, and also the pretty obvious value/synergies for an acquirer if regulatory hurdles as we’ve seen can be overcome
@junkbondinvest 5 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is due to its customers holding spending flat vs. leaving. If this is the case across levered software credit, we likely just grind lower across multiple A&Es w/o a clear hard default in the near-term
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

We went through how the recent sale of Pep Boys implies a $30 share price for $MNRO. Will they sell? This is where it gets interesting. About a year ago they brough in a restructuring CEO to clean-up the business (i.e. prepping it for a sale?). However, the clearest sign is this: Historically, Solomon owned 19,664 Class C shares that had more voting right than all of the common shares which was a huge impediment on any push to sell the company. However, on June 18, 2026, these shares were converted into 1,204,908 common shares (taking shares outstanding to 31.25M) after pressure from common shareholders. Essentially, Solomon was bribed with an extra 1.185M shares to give up his voting rights. If the company is sold at $30 per share that would be an extra $35M+ for Solomon. It gets even better. Remember the restructuring CEO? Well, the company also started a strategic review which includes a review of selling the entire company. Guess which banks are involved. Bank of America and Solomon Partners engagement began in May of 2026. Yes, the investment bank that Solomon funded will also be getting a cut of the deal for finding a buyer. Solomon, at 87 years old, now has every incentive possible to sell and sell quickly. And Icahn's sale of Pep Boys to Mavis just laid the groundwork. Maybe Icahn, with 33% economic interest in $MNRO, takes the $MNRO land and Mavis takes the operations. The framework already exists. The Pep Boys deal already closed. Icahn has the cash he needs to buy the land. Mavis has the cash to buy the operations.... Meanwhile.... shorts are shorting 40%+ of the float hoping for a dividend cut. The cut isn't happening, because the company is being sold...

Investor Letters

All letters

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $33B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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