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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

SMR reactors last year or quantum...appears the current moments basket of trash stocks with a narrative that doesn't fit the companies is 3rd derivative ai drug discovery plays (genome, simulation software, etc). $TWST $TEM $SDGR $TXG and theres more My favorite is $WGS - opko rehash with key players from there somehow sitting on a multi billion dollar valuation currently. There were caught with billing schemes multiple times at Opko as well as other serious problems (see Philip frost and opko). A member of the board actually still sits on Frosts charity and the CEO was the CEO of Cathie Wood favorite Invitae, that went bankrupt a few years ago. The short story writes itself, seems like a CVNA almost where the setup is pretty opposite, and yet it probably continues to work against you
@KEDM_COM 2 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Alpine Capital @jdsdebruyn reduced semiconductor exposure and added hyperscalers after the June pullback, citing combined hyperscaler capex of approximately $416bn in 2025 projected to exceed $750bn in 2026. It initiated Oracle $ORCL, and concedes the entry has not worked yet: “Oracle’s price action since initiation has been disappointing, but we believe the valuation is attractive and the current view on Larry Ellison (co-founder) is probabilistically asymmetric given the entry point. Oracle can slow spending if AI reverses (which we do not think will happen).”
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap
@majgeoinvesting 1 click

Maj Soueidan on X

I can see that being true. But when you’re playing in the smaller cap universe, the information disconnect edge is crazy huge. Because less investors are looking at these stocks, no one‘s really finding the information. But yes, when people discover the info, the interpretation phase kicks in. With big caps it’s more about the interpretation phase because everyone is looking at the same information. With microcaps, you have two MultiBagger forces happening: Early information discovery + interpretation. By the way, let’s not forget that there’s so much information out there to interpret, that it creates “brain” overload. It’s going to be interesting to see how AI plays a part in solving some of that problem. 👊But generally, I do like your interpretation angle. It’s funny because when you find information arbitrage in microcaps… that’s so obvious… sometimes you have no movement in the stock because people are either interpreting it wrongly or just don’t believe it, etc. By the way, $HPE would be another good Bigcap Case Study you could use to support your interpretation argument. It just sat there at 15 bucks, as people debated their relevance in AI… And then overnight it goes to $50. I rarely buy big caps, but I got lucky and actually bought some call options ahead of the move.

Investor Letters

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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