Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Friday, October 30, 2026

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins drove 46% of segment earnings.

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Anthropic and Binance show why the speed of containment matters. Cathedral, an AI security startup, says its agents found routes into Anthropic's internal messages and employee records by exploiting third-party business software during a security test. Anthropic acknowledged limited sales, HR and IT exposure, but says its model weights and code were safe, its monitoring caught some activity, and access was cut the same day. I lean toward Cathedral on the significance of that exposure. Internal information can help attackers impersonate colleagues and target people with privileged access. The damage can extend beyond the data initially exposed. Supply-chain risk becomes harder to contain as more tools and agents gain access to company systems. Tighter permissions should help. Building more tools internally might reduce vendor exposure, but it also transfers maintenance and security work to your own team. Binance's October 29 hack involved a different suspected entry point. Its preliminary investigation says a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop may have let an attacker reach an internal service and submit unauthorized withdrawals. Binance estimates a $6.3bn impact, with roughly $3bn frozen so far. An attacker using a trusted employee's access can cause damage without any malicious insider. And TRM Labs says most of the funds leaving Binance moved in about 20 minutes. That is why I think shift-right security becomes increasingly important: detecting and stopping attacks while systems are running. Security teams need to recognize lateral movement, where an attacker moves between accounts or machines, and contain it before the attacker reaches systems that can cause much greater damage. This is part of why we like Palo Alto Networks ($PANW). Cortex combines network, endpoint and cloud data with response controls, including the ability to isolate compromised devices. Connecting an investigation to an action that stops the attack matters when the attacker can move this quickly. It also makes cybersecurity an interesting market for premium-speed AI inference. An AI security agent needs to investigate accurately and act quickly, with current data and permission to intervene. Where the model's reasoning time is delaying containment, paying even 100x more per inference call could make economic sense if the reduction in expected losses exceeds the extra cost. Faster inference becomes valuable when it lets the defender stop an attack sooner without sacrificing accuracy.

Investor Letters

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $39B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks
RXO · short

Rxo INC

RXO, a top-five U.S. freight broker, carries roughly 5x LTM EBITDA leverage and undisclosed off-balance-sheet liabilities after its 2022…

RXO $4.6B
Value Investors Club

Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $30B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens ad…

APP $87BU $17B
Speedwell Memos 71 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

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