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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

The AI build is moves more aggressively off the balance sheet Convequity’s debt scan across $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL and $META: what these companies borrow in public is rising slowly. What they have promised to spend later — leases not yet started, equipment orders, contracted compute — is rising much faster. In 2Q26 that gap is the widest in four quarters. Off-book commitments are running toward +316% year-on-year. On-book debt is barely moving. If you only watch headline borrowings, you miss the cycle. MSFT is the clearest case. On-book debt +15% YoY. Off-book commitments +138%. That is why its all-in financing load is about 17x reported borrowings. Microsoft is under pressure from two sides: shareholders who want more AI spend, and shareholders who want less capex and faster returns. The compromise is to slow the capex it puts on its own books and lock in capacity from $IREN, $NBIS and other neo-clouds instead. How that works: IREN or NBIS borrows, builds the site and owns the chips. Microsoft signs a multi-year contract to pay for the capacity. Microsoft does not put the building on its balance sheet. It takes a future bill — rent and service payments that show up later as operating cost. Asset risk moves to the neo-cloud. Payment risk stays with Microsoft. GOOGL looks similar on a multiple and is doing something different. All-in commitments are 10.2x borrowings: $100bn of headline debt, $121bn including leases, $902bn off-book. $811bn of that off-book pile is purchase orders for its own stack — TPUs and the kit around them — not rented neo-cloud sites. On-book +190% YoY. Off-book +836%. That multiple is Google buying the factory, not renting it. META is closer to Google than to Microsoft: on-book +127%, off-book +680%. Some of Meta’s orders are reserved compute from CoreWeave and Nebius, which Meta will expense as it uses the capacity. Most of the pile is still Meta committing to build and buy for itself. AMZN is the most balanced of the four (+59% on-book / +80% off-book). Both lines are rising together. If the cycle breaks, Microsoft is less stuck with buildings and chips it owns. It is more stuck with bills it already signed. Google is more exposed because more of the capital is already spoken for on its own account. If compute gets scarcer, the extra megawatts IREN and NBIS have not yet sold can go to whoever pays more. Microsoft then has to wait or pay up. Because it owns less of the physical stack, it has less spare capacity it can simply switch on — which means higher compute costs and tighter margins. Powerful cycle. Not a broad bubble. The heat is in the promises, not the 10-Q debt line. Full AI Bubble Barometer available at Convequity.

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CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

ServiceNow Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ServiceNow’s Q3 revenue rose 20.5% to $4.11 billion, while non-GAAP EPS missed consensus and fourth-quarter cRPO growth guidance slowed to…

NOW $106B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Why So Much Copper?

Amphenol and other copper-connectivity suppliers benefit as copper remains essential inside AI racks, where low-voltage, high-current power…

APH $195B
Jimmy's Journal 3 clicks

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