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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

We wouldn’t be surprised to see GPU rental revenue reach $100bn per gigawatt a year. Nebius ($NBIS) has already reported a short-term deal in the $40m–$50m per MW annualised range. That is $40bn–$50bn per GW. Likewise for Space $SPCX and others while $CRWV sold its long term capacity too early at low prices. Use 660,000 Blackwell GPUs as a simplified 1GW case. With every GPU-hour rented: • $50bn a year = $8.65 per GPU-hour. • $100bn a year = $17.30 per GPU-hour. DeepSeek reports $38 of API revenue per GPU-hour at off-peak prices for a V4.1 Flash cluster. Peak tariffs are double. Serving the same workload at those prices would imply $76 per GPU-hour. For an inference provider that can reproduce those economics on rented hardware, a move from $5–$6 rent to $9 can still be affordable. Even roughly $18 need not make the service uneconomic. Suppose another provider achieves 70% of that $38–$76 revenue benchmark across its rented GPU-hours. That gives $26.60–$53.20 of revenue per hour. After $18 of GPU rent, $8.60–$35.20 remains for other costs and profit. The condition is matching DeepSeek’s serving efficiency on the rented hardware and sustaining paid demand at those token prices. Releasing the inference code does not guarantee either. For operators that can do this, we think there is room to keep bidding up scarce GPU capacity, even at twice today’s roughly $9 hourly rate.

Investor Letters

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OTIS · long

Otis Worldwide CORP

Otis Worldwide's largest global elevator installed base generates 95% recurring revenue, with service margins above 90% supporting a…

OTIS $30B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

DG $28BEXPE $34B
Stock Thoughts

Under The Hood - Rollins ($ROL)

Rollins ($ROL) pairs automatically renewing pest-control contracts with route density and family-business acquisitions, producing 24…

ROL $16B
Bearhold Research

Adobe

Adobe’s bear case is that generative AI breaks new-user habit formation, leaving its professional base sticky but aging as growth slows and…

ADBE $97B
Bearstone

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $26B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $23B
Eagle Point Capital 1 click

When the Ducks are Quacking

Ford’s 1956 IPO sold 10.2 million shares at $63 each after Goldman Sachs helped resolve the Ford Foundation’s voting-rights problem.

F $49B
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