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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Interesting to see $V up 9 days in a row (nearly funtrun the Chinese announcement). While a positive, it will be years before it plays out (if China follows through down the line, and gets them in the same place AXP and MA already were + the domestic competition). But thats incremental and down the road at best the focus though should be the support the administration (trump recently, and JD wrote the bill when in congress) has thrown behind the CCCA as well as additional bipartisan sponsors that signed on in the past few weeks....that bill will open the rails to an additional network. Which would be a very big additional push towards stable coin based transactions (even greater push from agents commerce). Ultimately the power is shifting towards merchants that no longer want to be subjected to 3%+ interchange fees. If $V losses the CCCA and pandoras box on competition is opened their entire moat is at stake, similar to what is going on with $FICO and Vantage. A once unassailable business model could very quickly come under pressure. Australia lowered interchange fees, went in to effect Oct. 1.....the pressure is building worldwide. But it's the cracking the door open in addition to a new way of shopping that could really leave $V disrupted. Not a mistake the first move earlier this year was lower on the back of AI fears, it has bounced with software now where somehow Phone systems from $RNG and website domains from $GDDY are somehow the new "hot trade", but secular trends seem obvious regardless of pacing that Visa and its pricing power and duopoly are in trouble and FICO to me is a similar case study.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

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