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Alto Ingredients, Inc.

ALTO

36 stories

$289M Market cap · 2026-10-28

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

I expect an earnings beat against analyst estimates. The price of ethanol rocketed during the quarter, and I don't think the market or analysts understand how the $ALTO hedging works on their specialty alcohols. No one noticed by Q2, despite being amazing, was adversely impacted due to this and EPS should have been higher than reported. Q3 should benefit where Q2 was hurt and EPS are likely to be higher than they should be as compared to Adjusted EBITDA.
@DOMOCAPITAL 3 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 and last year's Q3 (this year's Q2 was actually higher than last year's Q3!). But EPS should definitely be above analyst estimates and could possibly top Q2 EPS. Market doesn't understand how the hedges on the specialty alcohol work. Q2 EPS were penalized simply because the price of ethanol fell a bit during Q2. Well... during Q3, the price of ethanol rocketed higher. Therefore, even though Q2 had a much better average crush margin than Q3, it's possible Q3 could have higher EPS due to how these hedges work. To be clear - on an annual basis - the hedging has no impact. $ALTO is just locking in profit margin. But since it's not hedge accounting... it has an impact on each quarter's earnings. ALTO's business is operating very well. They're posting quarter after quarter of profitable earnings. Q4 should be solid as well and crush margins are strengthening again. Once California E15 kicks in (1/1/2027) then margins will strengthen further. Additionally: It sounds like passage of farm bill that includes E15 is very likely by end of this year. Check out this Politico article highlighting how the GOP is likely to pass a ton of stuff before the end of the year: https://t.co/3VL4DjDnzy "Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.” The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jump-start matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well." "Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance. “If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”"
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Yes, those two. They are willing to sell the entire company, but the value of those two plants, specifically, are now much higher. I expect significant consolidation within the industry and that everyone is just waiting to see what happens with not only E15 in California, but year-round nationwide. If the Senate passes something in September/October then the odds that both $ALTO and $GPRE get sold skyrocket.
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Huge overnight news for #E15 / $ALTO $GPRE in a vote that HAD to be approved before midnight and made it by seconds.... year-round E15 (from NO E15) will now begin in CA beginning 1/1/2027!! This is 600M+ gallons of ethanol demand that will lead to very strong 2027 crush margins while also significantly increasing the value of $ALTO's western ethanol plants. The bill approved E10 vapor recovery systems for E15 use: https://t.co/7gr7rtBX7t
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

I just met with $ALTO management. In regards to the ATM - apparently there were some rumors in the market regarding the mixed shelf they recently renewed where people were concerned they would dilute shareholders by $150M or something. The ATM puts that to bed and increases their ability to negotiate on future projects from a position of strength. Shareholders certainly shouldn't be expecting that $ALTO is going out this week and raising $50M. In-fact, they even posed the question, "Look, if we were going to raise $50M in the next week or two, would we be aggressively paying down our debt?" Answer seems pretty obvious........ Market is vastly overreacting here - great opportunity.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

It would be massive.... Honestly though, California is nearly as big as it will be almost instantaneous.... There is simply a fire marshal holding it up for really no reason. It could get resolved any day and when it does... California will be full go E15 instantly. You'll notice an immediate decrease in ethanol inventories and an increase in ethanol prices / crush margins. $ALTO is uniquely positioned for this as well with the west coast facilities. Year-round #E15 approval will take time. Infrastructure would need to be built out across the national and ethanol demand would steadily move higher year after year. California already has the infrastructure.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

That said... I don't expect them to be using it at these levels. I think there are a lot of near-term catalysts that will take shares to new highs. Additionally, I don't know what the short seller thesis is from here. The profitability of $ALTO has completely shifted. The shorts need to cover a lot of shares. I don't know how they're going to do it without moving the stock up a lot. If they wait for the #E15 news they are toast....

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