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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

Gavin, you're always generous with your time on this platform and forthcoming with your views, which I genuinely appreciate. Where are you getting the $35Bish in future annual commitments when they have $500B in compute purchase commitments over a 5-7 year span PLUS the $AMD chip leasing deal (uncertain tenor) which is another $160B? Anthropic might very well grow fast enough not to burn cash, but that's not how the company frames it in their S-1. Rather than take my word for it, here's the relative language in the S-1: "As a result, we expect these investments to result in significant net cash used in operating and investing activities for the foreseeable future, and our net cash used in these activities may increase regardless of whether our financial performance improves" The business model is changing going forward. $ANT
@ActAccordingly 6 clicks

PAA Research on X

The way we were... I've been wondering why there was such a rush to get the $ANT S-1 filed amidst a brutal sell-off in AI related names. Then I read the filing and it's painfully clear. $ANT has scaled at a mind-boggling clip up until this point. Yes the company did generate operating cash flow and profits in 2Q26, but that no longer is representative of the business model going forward. With $500B+ of compute cost commitments with $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN and $SPCX and a $161B equipment lease with $AMD, the entire cost structure of this business is now changing under the "Anthropic Direct" initiative. They're showing you that delivering inference was a structurally high margin business in 2Q26 (50%+ margin). Will it be going forward? Well they're sitting on something that looks like $85-100B in compute commitments ANNUALLY. As a point of reference they spent $5.5B in 2Q26 on compute. Even if they get towards $80B of ARR by year end (which could be optimistic), it's a big hurdle to get to profitability in 2027 unless ARR doubles (or more). There is a placeholder for October 2026 ARR in the S-1. I cannot think of another single sentence in a SEC filing that will have more of an impact on the fate of capital markets than that one. My guess is everyone in the VC and tech community will up their Claude spend this month for that very reason.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.6B
Bearstone 5 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 6 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.2B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $616B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

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