Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, October 26, 2026

Back to today

Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$NVDA: custom ASICs eat into the GPU share Our scenarios include custom ASICs rising from roughly 20% of the overall AI compute mix toward 40–50%. ABBX records 21.2GW of planned capacity for OpenAI and 13.8GW for Anthropic. Within Anthropic’s plan, ABBX allocates 5GW to AWS Trainium and 5GW to Google/Broadcom TPUs, putting these custom-chip platforms at roughly 72% of its planned capacity. That is a substantial shift in hardware demand if the deployments proceed, although the plans span different timelines. With purchasing concentrated among a few large customers, their decisions to expand on custom silicon could reduce NVIDIA’s share of spending even as the overall AI infrastructure market continues to grow.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$SITM supplies timing devices used in optical modules in NVIDIA-based AI data centers. In an AI data center, a clock exists to keep parts synchronized. Training and inference run across thousands of chips in parallel, and each step depends on data arriving at the right moment. When timing slips, GPUs wait, networks stall, and expensive compute goes unused. The move from 800G to 1.6T optical modules shows how this becomes demand for timing parts. Bandwidth does not simply double. The link is split into more lanes running at higher baud rates. Each lane has a tighter jitter budget, and it often adds clock domains for the DSPs, SerDes groups and laser drivers. So each module carries more timing components, and each component has to meet a higher performance requirement. That pushes average selling prices up alongside unit volumes. The same pattern appears in the switches inside that cluster. A high-radix switch multiplies SerDes lanes as bandwidth scales. When the switch increases radix and speed at the same time, it drives more clock domains across the fabric, the ports, and the control logic. Timing content in the switch therefore multiplies rather than rising in step with the size of the cluster. This is why we see continued hypergrowth for SiTime. In NVIDIA-based data centers, SiTime's parts are discrete devices, separate from the GPU and switch ASICs, allowing timing performance to improve independently as system requirements change, and demand for them rises in several places in the rack at once.
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Secular theme of increasing competition in the coffee space, no issue taking a position against SBUX which still carries a premium valuation largely on that premise. My flip side to that, is why also be long Dutch $BROS? Trades worked against you for almost the same reasons - intensifying competition from direct copy cat 7 Brew. But there are many regional players that are aggressively scaling - Summermoon, Foxtail, Lala land, Merrit, etc and those are the ones just geographically close to me but it's a countrywide phenomenon. Turns out yes coffee is habitual and generates good cash returns, but barriers to entry are low. The bidding war for the Salads real estate was insane, and shows how deep pocketed 7 Brew is in their expansion, and being PE backed and not public means they might be less disciplined...... So why Bros? There might still be potential there, the model is efficient and a cult service culture, but even at current levels I find the valuation difficult to digest not to mention overhangs from GLP1s, affordability/gas prices

Investor Letters

All letters

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 67 of 262

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.