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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Comedian talking sense about $JMKE. Just like how Wendy's went to shredded lettuce instead of Iceburg, $JMKE sandwich quality started deteriorating 2 years ago according to this guy. Not counting them out, but not looking great. I made this mistake of buying $JOAN after it IPO'd. Amazing growth, amazing margins, 12x P/E! Of course it was being undermaintained and quality quickly deteriorated post-covid. Beware of private equity and short-term oriented management teams.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$INMD has 8.5/sh of cash, a 14.5/sh stock price, and around my estimate of .7/sh of eps after accounting for capital requirements and excluding interest income. If this is right, that means it's trading around 8x p/e (6/.7) for just the operating business. Even if you thought it should only be 4x p/e (3/.7), that's 3$ of downside (20%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Vice versa, if you thought it should be 12x p/e (8.4/.7), that's 2.4$ of upside (16%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Suppose a rational stock market investor requires a 9% return, and if he valued a stock at 8x p/e, that multiple would be consistent with a perpetual earnings decline around 3% annually. For a 4x p/e that rate would be closer to 13%. Should we value INMD's future cash stream at an 8x NTM P/E, above, or below? INMD's earnings seems to be declining much faster than 3% annually, even faster than 11% annually. There seems to be a lot of competition, a lot of issues with their strategy, constnat negative revisions, constant missed promises and dissapointments. Wonder what's going on underneath
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

But if returns on capital are declining for everyone, the choice is whether to eat or to be eaten? $T is willing to subsidize fiber as a loss leader to protect their wireless margins. $CHTR / $CMCSA are likewise willing to give away wireless to protect their broadband margins… which comes back to the question: which is stickier, your phone or broadband line? I think $CMCSA works because of the spin unlock and sheer strength of their balance sheet. $CHTR is a very long dated call option with more risk, but much more upside if broadband losses attenuate and/or they allocate capital intelligently (although $CHTR’s balance sheet is more levered, there is tremendous optionality in its duration, cost and structure).

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $18B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 13 clicks

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