Monday, October 26, 2026

Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B

Bison Insights Oct 26 7 clicks

Oct 26 IREN $11B

The Data Center Bridge

CV's Substack 16 clicks

Oct 26 TFC $59B

Quick Value #335 - Truist Financial (TFC)

Value Don't Lie 4 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach Sep 23 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Imagine being a Wall Street suit, drooling all over your big fat belly, and refusing to buy $GME in this cycle of obese adults buying card board squares of lizards that can spit fire for 69x the cost to print. Pokemon cards still hold value better than the failing U.S. dollar. Wall Street suits are staring at their silly little models, playing with their dumb discount rate, with the inability to pleasure their wives while GameStop transformed their entire business model.

@ACapitalLP Sep 23 1 click

A Capital on X

Perception <> Reality $OWL selling off on a $1bn Loparex restructuring headline, despite having already marked its second-lien exposure to 5 cents on the dollar at June 30, down from 63 cents in March. That excludes any potential equity recovery… Thx for the “gift” Bloomberg… https://t.co/5p1wrv5PzL

@junkbondinvest Sep 23 5 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is due to its customers holding spending flat vs. leaving. If this is the case across levered software credit, we likely just grind lower across multiple A&Es w/o a clear hard default in the near-term

@aleabitoreddit Sep 23

Serenity on X

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

@leevalueroach Sep 23 1 click

Lee Roach on X

This is why I’m long $GME. Because of dumb Disney Adults. Go there sometime. It’s a bunch of adults without kids acting like children. Now these Disney adults are piling into trading cards. They are reliving their childhood because they will never have kids of their own. Even Toys R Us is reopening to target these morons. It’s turbo time.

@junkbondinvest Sep 23 1 click

junkbondinvestor on X

Remember during COVID, $RCL was raising debt (secured by 28 of its own ships btw) at 11% just to stay alive? Well, they just agreed to pay $3bn for Sandals, the biggest deal in its history 6 years ago, the question was whether they would still exist...how times change https://t.co/qsdrXBcHhA

@kab604 Sep 23

kab60 on X

It's always weird when analysts don't address the elephant in the room - you'd think things were going splendid at $CHTR and they were running with net cash: https://t.co/NPBWGrKxuQ

@ACapitalLP Sep 23 1 click

A Capital on X

$LPLA’s customer is the independent financial advisor, not the end investor. Advisors own the client relationship. LPL provides the custody, compliance and infrastructure. The idea that Muse justifies a 7.5% selloff is perception <> reality… https://t.co/VA013VwL2T

Intuitive Surgical: The Long Road to Everyday Surgery

Intuitive Surgical built da Vinci into a 12,000-system surgical-robotics network performing 10,000 daily procedures, while high-volume…

ISRG $155B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 26 8 clicks

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11B

Bearstone Oct 26 8 clicks

Analog Devices: A Diversified Route To AI Growth

Analog Devices generated Q3 revenue of $4.02 billion, up 40% year over year, with AI and data centers contributing under 20% of sales…

ADI $206B

Narek Hovhannisyan Oct 26 7 clicks

WD 361: Brazil, JetBlue Bankruptcy, Mexican Airlines Merger

Brazil’s Lula victory leaves Nu and Inter’s thesis intact, while JetBlue heads toward bankruptcy and Mexican airlines pursue a merger.

NU $60B

Ian’s Insider Corner Oct 25 11 clicks

American Express: P&L Slowed, Consumer Didn’t

American Express’s Q3 billed-business growth slowed and cards in force fell sequentially, but management attributes the weakness to…

AXP $211B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 25 3 clicks

Philip Morris International: Ho-hum Hrmm?

Philip Morris posted 7% organic Q3 revenue growth and 10% operating-income growth as 9.1% cigarette pricing offset flat volumes, while IQOS…

PM $316B

Invariant Oct 25 13 clicks

Western Digital: Cracks In Its AI Supercycle Are Worsening (Rating Downgrade)

Western Digital faces slowing AI-driven pricing gains and hyperscaler capex uncertainty, raising pressure on margins and valuation despite…

WDC $143B

JR Research Oct 25 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B

CV's Substack Oct 24 10 clicks

Expert Call | AI Server OEM: 2026 xAI Orders, GB300 Price Hikes & B300 Margin Gains

Super Micro’s 2026 xAI rack orders, GB300 price increases and B300 mix frame its gross-margin outlook.

SMCI $23B

P Equity Research Oct 24 7 clicks

Ares Capital: This 10%+ Yield Is An Undervalued Buy

Ares Capital’s 10%+ yield is supported by a $30.5 billion portfolio with over 70% floating-rate debt, though dividend coverage remains…

ARCC $13B

Jonathan Weber Oct 24 6 clicks

DLTR · long

Dollar Tree INC

Dollar Tree is long after divesting Family Dollar, separating its stronger banner from its weaker business.

DLTR $23B

Value Investors Club Jul 27

SLB Stock: Upgrading Back To A Buy As The Earnings Recovery Takes Shape

SLB’s Q3 beats, sequential margin gains and roughly $10 billion Q4 revenue guide support an earnings recovery despite flat Middle East…

SLB $80B

Steven Fiorillo Oct 24 3 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B

Doomberg Oct 24 12 clicks

Applied Materials: Buy The Engineering Powerhouse Behind AI

Applied Materials targets AI-driven demand for advanced logic, DRAM and packaging, supported by services revenue and operating leverage…

AMAT $314B

Dhierin Bechai Oct 24 4 clicks

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix,…

CRWV $34B

Steve Eisman Oct 23 29 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 23 12 clicks

DigitalOcean's AI Flywheel: Unleashing Massive Growth Potential For Bold Investors

DigitalOcean is pivoting toward affordable AI infrastructure and inference workloads, targeting share from AWS and Google Cloud amid…

DOCN $12B

Star Investments Oct 23 9 clicks

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings - Revenue Up 138% On The Datacenter Power Race

Bloom Energy’s Q3 FY26 revenue rose 138% to $1.24 billion as datacenter power orders lifted operating margin to 18%; capex drove $181…

BE $67B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 9 clicks

Philip Morris: Taking the Fight to the U.S.

Philip Morris reported Q3 growth across heated tobacco, combustibles and e-vapor in Europe while gaining U.S. nicotine-pouch share.

PM $316B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 23 4 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B

Net Interest Oct 23 12 clicks

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Monday, October 26, 2026

Lee Roach on X

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Serenity on X

Lee Roach on X

junkbondinvestor on X

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