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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL 8 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Fantastic article on $PESI here: https://t.co/7CoHjY2fcZ Extremely undervalued stock and market is putting way too much emphasis on whether or not Washington Ecology approves grouting at 200 East sooner vs later. It's going to happen and the West is already approved. $100+ stock moving forward. This is a $4.4 BILLION dollar project and $PESI has a market cap of just $276M. I expect them to be free cash flow positive by Q4 of this year and then (as you can see in article) the volumes really ramp-up whether grouting is approved or not (and it will be as soon as Ecology can approve without it bolstering Republicans in the mid-terms by giving Trump credit for accelerating a project no other administration cared to accelerate - a huge win for the people of Washington). PESI is the ONLY vendor listed on the official DOE. The facility is only one mile away plus it's a huge benefit to the local unions whose workers get to benefit from a local problem. Governor's of states with competitors have already said there's no way they'd allow the liquid nuclear waste to be transported through their state in order to be treated. There is no competitor for PESI. The market is completely sleeping on this. PESI has line of sight towards potentially $500M of annual, incremental revenue in the coming years with a revenue stream that will last DECADES yet trades at $277M. Not many opportunities like this come along and there is practically zero exposure to any sort of market or economic downturn. This is a court mandated clean-up project that will accelerate no matter what the economy does. Not a recommendation - do your own due diligence - but this is now a significant position for our clients.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I listened to the CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA), a ransomware recovery company, explain why AI data labeling companies came to his team. Data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked Nubeva whether it could help them label what each malware binary does, like whether it’s secretly encrypting files. Malware often arrives as a binary, a compiled program in machine code, and many are obfuscated, or scrambled to hide their purpose. CEO Randy Chou said in an October 5, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel that Nubeva has spent the last 7-8 years learning to spot homemade encryption, meaning encryption that ransomware authors write themselves instead of using a standard method. Homemade encryption is harder to catch, since it doesn’t match any of the standard methods security tools know. Here’s how Chou described what frontier models (the most advanced models from labs like OpenAI and Anthropic) can figure out today: “Frontier labs out there with their cybersecurity fully enabled, when they do full automation, they can approximately figure out 30% of the malware binaries. That’s the published numbers that are out today.” That claim is in line with GPT-5.6-sol’s 30.5% score on SRE-Bench, a Columbia University-led test of AI models on 262 binaries, but OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has since reached 56.9%. Chou said that for the other ~70%, a model might flag a binary as weird but can’t say what it does. He mentioned that some malware arrives compressed and obfuscated, then checks whether someone opened five apps, like a browser and Microsoft Office, in the past 72 hours, a known sandbox-evasion technique. If not, the malware assumes it’s inside a sandbox (an isolated computer analysts use to test suspicious programs) and does nothing. Today, Chou said, a small group of specialist cybersecurity labs takes malware apart by hand, and analyzing a new ransomware family typically takes weeks or months. He added that Nubeva has tested binaries written by its own engineers that frontier models couldn’t explain. That’s why Nubeva is now training its own model, which has no internet access, with “hundreds and thousands of AI agents.” The training only just started, but Chou said the timeline Nubeva is working to is “days and weeks,” not the 6-12 months he’d have quoted before AI agents. “I’m putting all my focus on this now,” he said.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $451B
Value Investors Club

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B
Net Interest 11 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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