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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

From X

@ClarkSquareCap

Clark Square Capital on X

Pretty solid technical backdrop for $LUXE. Short interest still at 4 million shares despite the big recent move. 4m shares short take 20 days to cover and represent almost 20% of the actual float (~23m shares). Then you have the company with a $50m authorization -- which could take out another 5m shares or so at current prices. In total, there could be buying for ~9m shares or ~40% of the float in the next few months. Crazy.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Google's ($GOOGL) TPU volumes alone could add roughly $11 billion to $14 billion a year to Broadcom ($AVGO) revenue on our illustrative estimates, and Anthropic and OpenAI are a larger opportunity on top. April supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU demand at 4.2 million to 4.5 million units in 2026, rising above 6 million units in 2027. We allow for MediaTek's allocation to rise from around 600,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units in 2027 and assume Broadcom supplies the remainder. At the 6 million-unit level in 2027, that leaves Broadcom with roughly 1.1 million to 1.4 million additional chips compared with 2026. At an illustrative $10,000 of revenue per chip, that would add $11 billion to $14 billion in annual revenue from higher volumes alone. The actual increase will depend on which designs ship and their selling prices. Our working estimates put Anthropic's demand for Broadcom-supplied TPUs at around 1 gigawatt in 2026, rising to 5 gigawatts in 2027. OpenAI's separate custom-chip program has demand estimated at 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 5 gigawatts in 2028. Anthropic's TPU purchases overlap with the Google TPU opportunity, so we count those sales once. Together, the Anthropic and OpenAI estimates point to around 10 gigawatts of demand by 2028. Assuming Broadcom earns $10 billion to $20 billion for each gigawatt supplied, that represents a $100 billion to $200 billion revenue opportunity across those deployments.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We added to Tesla ($TSLA) as a long-term holding in physical AI through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep the position small. Our view is that an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product, extending Tesla's opportunity beyond its vehicle business. Tesla's batteries and its ability to coordinate difficult industrial supply chains add to that potential. The position stays small because reliability in real working environments, affordability and commercialization timing are unproven. Demonstrations alone do not establish that Optimus is ready for sustained use, and commercialization could take longer than investors expect. Reports that China was slowing humanoid-company IPO activity reinforce our concern that financial enthusiasm can advance faster than the underlying technology. A rumored Tesla facility in Ningbo, near Shanghai, could strengthen the industrial case if confirmed. Its proposed role is to coordinate Chinese suppliers and validate components for Optimus V3. The associated target of 50,000 Optimus units by year-end remains unconfirmed and ambitious, and we do not build our case around that volume. Our interest rests on the eventual product opportunity and Tesla's ability to solve production problems.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 11 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $451B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B
Net Interest 12 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $19B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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