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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The main duo $SKHY and Samsung are having a fun day. I'm still long memory (eg. $EWY / $DRAM ) since if capacity agreements extend 3-5 years... and your analysts model 2.8-3.3x 2027E. Risk/reward is attractive over time. But I think legacy memory a very interesting trade currently due to ASP hike potential.. It also just so happens these same companies procure memory from even smaller memory companies (that might have higher sensitivity)... So if you want to, you can track $PSMC wafer allocations, and find some interesting companies that likely replace $MU discontinued legacy memory through Alliance or supply directly to Samsung. Won't mention them on X, but just throwing out some research ideas.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The internet is now cooked soon? With $RDDT to other social media like X more at risk due to AI. You can have new decision models like Jev making autonomous computer interaction at near $0 cost. (With actions becoming more human-like/adapative) Then LLMs outputs influencing behavior or leading conversations. So at scale, a malicious actor can spawn 50,000,000 bots just roaming the internet, with LLM prompts convincing people + manufacturing public opinion. The main bottleneck would be phone number, IP, account age, maybe hardware for compute + device identifiers (which is extremely cheap still)… rather than LLM cost. I’ve already anecdotally seen short sellers use AI bots to spread negative misinformation about companies like $SIVE. Or bots market ____ account as the best one to follow in the comments. Or as seen with X uncovering 200+ bots manipulating debate about datacenter public opinion. But the scale might be exponentially worse soon. Scary to think about.

Investor Letters

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Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 12 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $451B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $19B
Best Anchor Stocks 15 clicks

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