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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Why we exited $FIG AI coding agents and prompt-to-UI tools are changing the design workflow faster than most expected. Platforms such as v0, Lovable and Claude Design can already take a team from idea to a working interface without a traditional design file in the middle. Figma has added its own generative features, yet these have largely been layered on via external model APIs rather than a full re-architecture around AI-native workflows. Newer entrants were built for this environment from the start. In public interviews the founding team has consistently struck a defensive posture — essentially arguing the existing franchise is secure — rather than showing the urgency of a company prepared to disrupt its own model. That mindset is rarely a positive signal when a platform shift is underway. After several quarters of waiting for a more compelling response, we exited the position.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Why we exited $CRSP and kept $TEM AlphaFold solved the backend of the problem — predicting a protein’s 3D structure from its sequence. The harder frontend problem remains: knowing which protein or pathway is actually worth targeting. Most complex diseases are still poorly understood at the causal level. That distinction matters. The next real breakthroughs look more likely to come from AI-native groups that treat large-scale compute as the primary engine, in the same way OpenAI and Anthropic approached language before the ChatGPT moment. Public investors may only get clean access later via secondaries or IPOs. CRISPR sits on the earlier-generation side of that divide. Tempus is closer to the compute-and-data native side — building models while assembling a genuine clinical data moat. That is why one was exited and the other retained.
@evantindell

Evan Tindell on X

Finally got a chance to go through the $UMG earnings... Obviously, a disappointment on revenue growth and margins, which saw the stock drop like 20%. Subscription revenue was 6.7% organically, and the street was looking for >9%. So, a big miss. Still, I think things should improve. Apple, Spotify, Amazon, and YouTube music have all raised prices this year, and a portion of that will go to UMG. CFO Matt Ellis said on the call that these prices and "better market share to start the third quarter" make them "cautiously optimistic" (really sticking his neck out there!!) that growth will improve in H2 of 2026. Interestingly, Warner Music $WMG managed to grow revenue 12% in CC and adjusted OIBDA by 24%, so clearly this is a UMG-only problem, at least for this quarter. $UMG trades at 14x earnings on a NTM basis now... this seems pretty reasonable if not downright cheap for a company that has grown EBIT from EUR 1b in 2019 to around 2b today (11% organic EBITDA CAGR). We own this through Bollore, which currently has an NAV of just above 11 EUR by my calculation vs a last price of under 4 EUR. Notably, JPM thinks new AI tiers in Spotify and Apple Music will drive ARPU growth of 300 bps per year. Their price target was 48 EUR prior to the recent earnings release...

Investor Letters

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Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $29B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens ad…

APP $92BU $18B
Speedwell Memos 69 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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