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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as revenue reached $197.1 million.

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 26 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

Two event-driven levered equities I’m thinking about this weekend: $XRX and $SVC. $XRX seems simple on paper. Monetize XFS, delever and unlock substantial equity value. But if it’s that obvious, why hasn’t Icahn’s guy done it in eight years? The recent TPG IP monetization suggests they’re willing to get creative, so what’s preventing an XFS transaction? $SVC is potentially more interesting. If the board accepts TKO’s $2bn hotel portfolio offer, you’re creating the remaining net lease portfolio at a very attractive valuation with significant equity torque from deleveraging. My biggest question is whether TKO actually has the financing commitments to close… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

85.5% of the BWX Technologies $BWXT stock insiders have sold in the open market since January 2025 came from CEO Rex Geveden. All 14 open-market transactions since then were sales, totaling 129,322 shares and $20.1M. Geveden accounts for 110,625 of the shares and $17.2M, in two phases: 1) Discretionary sales: 45,625 shares at $107.40 on February 26, 2025, and 25,000 at $179.00 on August 6, 2025, both two days after an earnings release and neither under a 10b5-1 plan (a pre-set trading plan). 2) Plan sales: On August 11, 2025, five days after the second sale, he adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 40,000 shares through August 14, 2026. He sold 10,000 shares/quarter under the plan, at $197.90, $203.26, $204.81, and $172.50, using up all 40,000. He still holds 192,491 shares directly ($28.0M at $145.70). The last two 10-Qs show no new plans adopted in H1 2026, and the Q3 10-Q, due with results on November 2, will show whether he adopted another plan after the first expired. The other eight sales, by seven executives and directors, totaled 18,697 shares and $2.9M. Most of this selling carries little signal. The other insiders’ $2.9M is small, and Geveden’s 40,000 plan shares were scheduled in August 2025. His two discretionary sales matter more. They totaled 70,625 shares ($9.4M) outside any plan, and including the plan sales, he’s sold about a third of his shares since February 2025. But both came right after $BWXT reported earnings, not ahead of them, at $107.40 and $179.00, well below the $238.42 peak. So the selling isn’t a warning sign, but with no insider buying during the drop, insiders aren’t signaling a bottom.
@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

I think Gavin's correct. Open-weight models that compress frontier margins are positive for AI infra -- they don't shrink demand for compute. An example is after Deepseek R1, Tencent, Alibaba and Bytedance *significantly* increased H20 orders...and smaller healthcare & education firms started buying $NVDA H20's to run DeepSeek in-house. So we saw a broadening out of the customer base for the infra providers. In the West, I think $DELL is the best read on whether the buyer base is broadening beyond frontier labs. Hyperscalers mostly buy directly from Taiwanese ODMs, so Dell's AI customers are mostly neoclouds, sovereigns and enterprises. Dell's AI customer count went from >5,000 to >6,500 last quarter (30% growth in one quarter) which management say is mainly down to enterprise acceleration. Feels like that's one of the better public data points on how fast the self-hosting buyer base is growing. Which is a net-positive for AI infra. I don't understand how it can't be?

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Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $79M
Calvin Blissett 9 clicks

Heico Corporation

HEICO sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts at 30% to 50% discounts to OEMs, gaining customers as restrictive aftermarket contracts…

HEI $43B
D Invests 13 clicks

Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $31B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks
CHGG · long

Chegg Inc

Chegg is framed as a binary long with 500% upside against 20% downside.

CHGG $78M
Value Investors Club 14 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens ad…

APP $92BU $18B
Speedwell Memos 66 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

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