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Monday, October 19, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Weird world to watch $RNG as the new memory stock. How much longer we think the squeeze in all things people were short 6 weeks ago lasts....getting pretty crazy to watch $WDAY climbing to $185. Doomsday at the lows, but not totally off base to reset off true profitability after years of sbc adjusted multiples. But the risks still remain, that structurally the barrier to generating code is lower, competition will increase as a result. And while there are advantages to certain players installed bases and data the moats have eroded to various degrees. Does anyone actually believe we need more phones, and more base level contact services in the future ($RNG) I doubt so. Its a pretty impressive counter trend, squeeze move against a clear trend (the reversal of May and June) but if you've benefited here from these rebounds I think you would be crazy to not only book profits but not find short exposure in this area, many of these companies even if they surrvive and can pivot to being ai beneficiary will go through some tough times in the coming few years as the prices decline for models and compute access
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

I still own $AIRS and think it will work. The company is in a much better financial and operational position than it was a year ago. Heading into the quarter, I thought they would post 3-5% same center comps, instead we got a 1% and they stated June/July was "soft". Guidance came down $1.0-$1.5MM for EBITDA, probably not the stuff (-40%+) declines are made of, but you have a ton of fast money and retail here. Brutal. However, the company spent a fair amount on top of the funnel brand marketing the past 3-6 months, the returns on that spend are longer tail in nature. Leverage is <2.0x now. They keep adding to the "menu" for procedures, which should drive significant improvements in site utilization and incremental margins that could approach 40-50%. This business has the potential to reach 150-200 units at 20-25% EBITDA margins. That would represent $1.0B in topline and $200MM+ of EBITDA. Obviously that doesn't happen anytime soon, but they can get back to de novo site expansion of 2-4 units a year starting in 2027 to get the growth flywheel going. The industry remains incredibly fragmented and the GLP-1 tailwinds for aesthetics are quite real. It's kind of remarkable the stock trades like this given the size of the float, which is probably only 12-13MM shares. Hopefully we'll see some insider buying in the coming days. At these levels, this would be an attractive asset for quite a few potential buyers IMO.

Investor Letters

All letters

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $492M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $292M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
SKIN · long

Skinhealth Systems INC

SkinHealth Systems owns a dominant professional skincare consumables franchise but trades at roughly $115 million market cap and $255…

SKIN $71M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Do You Trust Apple?

Apple’s HomeView strategy ties Siri, privacy and smart-home control to consumer trust in its vision for the home.

AAPL $5.1T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $12B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

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