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Monday, October 19, 2026

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From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

Investor Letters

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
HGV · long

Hilton Grand Vacations

Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.

HGV $2.8B
Value Investors Club

Google Is a Secular Short

Alphabet rents scarce AI compute to rivals while DeepMind faces internal capacity constraints, weakening Google’s AI position and long-term…

GOOGL $4.2T
Key Context by Tae Kim

Thoughts on Markets, July 2026

Meta’s planned cloud business and Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 revived doubts over AI compute scarcity, driving chip stocks lower and exposing S&P…

META $1.8T
Aurelion Research

On Holdings: Maintaining Pace

On Holdings expects roughly CHF 3.5 billion in FY26 revenue as running shoes drive growth, while APAC exceeds 20% of sales and apparel…

ONON $12B
TSOH Investment Research

The Black Patch Tobacco Wars

The Black Patch Tobacco Wars show how American Tobacco’s buying power drove Kentucky and Tennessee farmers to organize against below-cost…

BTI $130B
Invariant

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