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Monday, October 19, 2026

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@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

Personal dip buys from today: $AVGO, $MRVL, $KLAC $AVGO: - Feels like the market has overlooked Broadcom YTD. - I think they're still one of the best positioned in the networking theme thanks to exposure to many diverse areas - optical DSP, Tomahawk, Jericho. - Future growth should accelerate via Tomahawk 6/7 ramping in 2027, Tomahawk Ultra, optical DSPs. - Obviously there are risks with Broadcom but I ultimately see earnings upside = stock should re-rate (at some point lol). $MRVL: - Investor day last week basically confirmed that they're a scaleable AI infra name...not just custom silicon / DSP. - Feels like Marvell's opportunity is now much bigger than most people thought. - E.g. other than 800G/1.6T....NPO/CPO, and scale-out + up. - Still think it's early from them with many areas yet to ramp volumes e.g. 1.6T and NPO/CPO. Overall, feels like both Broadcom and Marvell are very well positioned. Broadcom keep adding XPU customers + extend those deals with hyperscalers. Marvell keep growing, very high torque right now IMO. $KLAC: - Down 42% in 3.5 months and haven't had a position before and wanted to take one lol - more so as a re-rating trade rather than a longer-term hold. - No real in depth thesis, more so a risk/reward play in the broader "AI quality" ecosystem I'm tracking. - Especially when compared against other semicaps like $LRCX / $AMAT that are well ahead in YTD %. Obviously these aren't your sexy names like $NBIS, $INTC or $BE - but I feel like I built my positions in these types of names earlier in the year (was a little late to the Intel party) and don't want my core portfolio to get overly concentrated. That said, I'm well aware that semis earnings are right around the corner and that many of these bottleneck type names have de-rated. But as of right now, I'm sitting slightly on the cautious side by not attempting to time bottoms here. Recent flow data has been tragic for semis, so would rather wait to see a few days of +ve net flows first to get some confidence that investor fatique isn't a permanent scar. There's only so much tolerance investors have for multiple >20% drawdowns in a matter of months.
@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

Glad we finally got a word too from $NVDA Jensen Huang today from an event at Stockholm... About $CRWV amid the broader Neocloud selloff. When asked about the markets reactions to Coreweave, Jensen responded: - "Coreweave's strength is improving every day, I'm optimistic" - "The cost of capital is actually decreasing" On whether Nvidia needed to provide a financial backstop: - Jensen said he did not see a need for Nvidia to backstop CoreWeave I'm personally not too positive about $CRWV relative to $NBIS and the others... but any copium helps from the man himself with market sentiment.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Nobody said $SIVE was going to be the sole laser provider for Ayar for all generations. 2nd gen Supernova was 16x wavelength that they confirmed Sivers. Ayar is expected to do multi-vendor for lasers, would be stupid not to. Originally disclosed suppliers were $LITE, $MTSI, and $SIVE, but there's probably only a few companies that can do this new design. For their new demonstration at OCP it's 8x 200mW range, $LITE is probably the closest one technologically to Ayar's OCP announcement, with 8x 250 mW demonstrated at ECOC just last month that they're targeting availability later in 2027. I don't see anything where $MTSI has demonstrated remotely similar capabilities yet. Macom were saying they were still working on 75 mW qualifications targeting production H2 2027. $SIVE has lower power 8/16 channel specs, and individual 200 mW lasers for NPO. I think this might relate to their Seminex partnership for UHP multi channel variants that they were targeting for 2027 so high confidence they'll meet technology specs eventually, more of a matter of timing. But basically new announced configuration from Ayar, can't really make any assumptions here yet, will need to wait for earnings of these players.

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Do You Trust Apple?

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AAPL $5T
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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

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