Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack Oct 17 13 clicks

Oct 17 COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 14 clicks

Oct 16 CRWV $34B

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman 22 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP Sep 23 1 click

A Capital on X

Perception <> Reality $OWL selling off on a $1bn Loparex restructuring headline, despite having already marked its second-lien exposure to 5 cents on the dollar at June 30, down from 63 cents in March. That excludes any potential equity recovery… Thx for the “gift” Bloomberg… https://t.co/5p1wrv5PzL

@junkbondinvest Sep 23 5 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is due to its customers holding spending flat vs. leaving. If this is the case across levered software credit, we likely just grind lower across multiple A&Es w/o a clear hard default in the near-term

@aleabitoreddit Sep 23

Serenity on X

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

@leevalueroach Sep 23 1 click

Lee Roach on X

This is why I’m long $GME. Because of dumb Disney Adults. Go there sometime. It’s a bunch of adults without kids acting like children. Now these Disney adults are piling into trading cards. They are reliving their childhood because they will never have kids of their own. Even Toys R Us is reopening to target these morons. It’s turbo time.

@junkbondinvest Sep 23 1 click

junkbondinvestor on X

Remember during COVID, $RCL was raising debt (secured by 28 of its own ships btw) at 11% just to stay alive? Well, they just agreed to pay $3bn for Sandals, the biggest deal in its history 6 years ago, the question was whether they would still exist...how times change https://t.co/qsdrXBcHhA

@kab604 Sep 23

kab60 on X

It's always weird when analysts don't address the elephant in the room - you'd think things were going splendid at $CHTR and they were running with net cash: https://t.co/NPBWGrKxuQ

@ACapitalLP Sep 23 1 click

A Capital on X

$LPLA’s customer is the independent financial advisor, not the end investor. Advisors own the client relationship. LPL provides the custody, compliance and infrastructure. The idea that Muse justifies a 7.5% selloff is perception <> reality… https://t.co/VA013VwL2T

@evantindell Sep 23

Evan Tindell on X

Mr. @BillBrewsterTBB in a DM late April 2022 re: $NFLX. Stock was up 6x over the next 3 years. Where are the bears too cocky today?? https://t.co/oevmBpgDD3

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $68B

LA Capital Oct 16 9 clicks

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 17 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

GE Vernova: AI's Next Bottleneck Is Electricity

GE Vernova’s 116 GW gas-turbine backlog and $5 billion in early-2026 data-center orders target AI-driven electricity demand, though its…

GEV $251B

Todd Feldman Oct 16 3 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 53 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 13 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 25 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T

Value Investors Club Jul 18 2 clicks

Kraft Heinz: The Boring 2027 Long That Doesn't Need A Rich Multiple

Kraft Heinz expects brand investment and productivity gains to restore sales growth and protect 2027 margins against 4-5% cost inflation.

KHC $28B

The Alpha Analyst Oct 15 1 click

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $631B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 15 13 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research Oct 15 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $208B

scuttleblurb Oct 15 12 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 28 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.2T

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 15 10 clicks

Why Broadcom Is My Largest Stock Holding Today

AVGO $1.6T

Fundamental Options Oct 15 4 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SBUX $109BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Nvidia’s Ian Buck says CUDA’s software ecosystem, GPU flexibility and annual Vera Rubin upgrades lower token costs as agentic AI pushes…

NVDA $5.2T

Key Context by Tae Kim Oct 14 6 clicks

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Saturday, October 17, 2026

A Capital on X

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junkbondinvestor on X

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A Capital on X

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