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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 12 clicks

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@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

Inference repeatedly reads the same model weights, with far fewer writes than training. 1. In training, weights are constantly updated, so the memory sees heavy read and write traffic. 2. In inference, the dominant pattern is repeated reading of the same weights, and the key-value cache alongside them, with far fewer writes. That is the case for putting AI model weights on flash. Flash has traditionally been weaker than DRAM on write endurance and write speed. A read-heavy, write-light workload plays to its strengths and gets around exactly those weaknesses. Today AI chips sit beside HBM built from stacked DRAM, and it is the expensive part of the memory bill. High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) is the product built on the read-heavy observation. It aims to deliver HBM-like read bandwidth at far higher capacity and lower cost by using NAND flash instead of DRAM. Two caveats. These are aims, not measured specifications. As of our early-August note, the first prototype from Sandisk ($SNDK), developed with SK Hynix, was expected later in the year. HBF is also more specialised than commodity NAND, where Chinese producers are expanding capacity aggressively.

Investor Letters

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 52 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 8 clicks

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