Sunday, October 4, 2026

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Oct 4 CBRS $39B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

Oct 4 GPI $2.7B

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

From X

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

@convequity Oct 4 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.

@ACapitalLP Oct 4 1 click

A Capital on X

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

@DevinLaSarre Oct 4 2 clicks

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.9TMS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $877B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.9TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

SYK · long

Stryker CORP

Stryker (SYK) trades near a 52-week low after a late-Q1 cyberattack disrupted revenue and earnings, framing a long-term compounder…

SYK $106B

Value Investors Club May 4 4 clicks

Sleep Well Portfolio (Feb 2026) - Software AI risk Assessed

Sleep Well Portfolio cuts SPS Commerce after assessing AI risk across 12 software holdings, finding deterministic, rule-based data…

SPSC $3B

Sleep Well Investments Mar 2

APi Group: How the story has evolved and what's next

APi Group hit its 13/60/80 targets in 2025, reporting $7.9 billion revenue, 13.2% EBITDA margin and 80% free-cash-flow conversion, then set…

APG $17B

Kairos Research Feb 26

Mispriced Domino’s Mention Contract: Kalshi Traders Haven’t Ordered This Yet!

Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…

DPZ $9.9B

First Strike Research Feb 22

Copart: 2Q26 Business Recap

Copart’s fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell 4% and U.S. insurance units dropped 11%, as underinsured drivers and carrier volumes weighed while IAA…

CPRT $25B

Speedwell Memos Feb 21

Grab Holdings ($GRAB) - Addressing the key risks to holding the stock

Grab’s main holding risks are competition, sustainable profitability and valuation, with entrenched ride-hailing and delivery positions…

GRAB $13B

Inglenook Growth Feb 20

Shift4 Company Podcast Episode Released!

Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…

FOUR $3.1B

Speedwell Memos Feb 19 1 click

The Skills AI Can’t Replace

Duolingo is presented as an AI-resilient opportunity after SaaS stocks sold off on fears that coding tools will compress software moats,…

DUOL $6.9BTEAM $52B

Modern Value Investing Feb 15

The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04

Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…

VIST $7.7B

Treasure Hunting Feb 15

Airbnb 4Q25: Business Update

Airbnb’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $2.8 billion and GBV 16%, while product improvements and AI spending target booking conversion…

ABNB $99B

Speedwell Memos Feb 14 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

Lee Roach on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Adam D. Wyden on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Convequity on X

A Capital on X

Devin LaSarre on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 225

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors