Sunday, September 13, 2026

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B

Sylence Capital Sep 13 2 clicks

Sep 13 BKNG $117B

Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup

Capitalist Letters 4 clicks

Sep 13 SVM $2.5B

Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026

The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 13

Negligible Capital on X

The fact that I had to check the $HOOD app to make sure this was fake is a pretty good indicator of where we stand https://t.co/2f572Mthh7

@DeepSailCapital Sep 13

Deep Sail Capital on X

@SixSigmaCapital It’s kind of the standard AI stack, Chips than Memory than Optics. But a layer deeper is the question if inference is the biggest theme, than does everyone making their own custom silicon become more mainstream? In that case $MRVL probably is highest beta play there.

@TheBenSchmark Sep 12

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Sometimes a simple chart and pun captures the entire thesis. Just go with the $FLO and make bread. https://t.co/VyIYTaVRF1 https://t.co/lGn8FncexY

@Fierce__beast Sep 12

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

@partners_road Sep 12

RiverRoadPartners on X

Stan gave the example of 2001. $CSCO had aggressively grown its backlog every yr through the Internet 1.0 buildout & the Street expected the same in 2001, but instead $CSCO’s backlog plunged. The build was over, & with that equipment demand evaporated. That will happen again. https://t.co/7yB6vDgcl8

@TidefallCapital Sep 12

Trevor Scott on X

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

@finphysnerd Sep 12 1 click

Myles on X

I feel $GEO is a pretty decent short here. It's not cheap, and I might be politically biased, but I think it's hard to see Republicans getting many wins in the midterms, which the market will likely extrapolate to 2028.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

I'll never understand going long $ADBE at 14x '27 when you can buy $CSU.TO at 15x '27. Maybe because it's Canadian listed.

Nintendo: The Software Payoff Is Still Ahead

Nintendo expects software, digital sales and character licensing to drive growth, with FY2027 revenue forecast at ¥2.05 trillion and…

NTDOY $61B

LL Insights Sep 13

AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap

Ten-year Treasury yields breach 4.9% as Steve Eisman discusses AI fears, OpenAI's price cut, Oracle's 30% revenue growth and Tesla's…

ORCL $437B

Steve Eisman Sep 11 2 clicks

USA Compression: Unlocking Efficiency As It Heads To The Texas Stock Exchange

USA Compression targets nearly 30% full-year EBITDA growth as JW Power synergies, telemetry and maintenance reduce costs; its units yield…

USAC $3.8B

Ron Ferrie Sep 11 3 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 11 2 clicks

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…

LULU $11BNKE $54B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 11 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B

Net Interest Sep 11 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $22BPTON $2.1B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 11 2 clicks

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY10/26 Earnings - Accumulation Zone And Stop Inside

Applied Materials reported Q3 revenue of $9.1 billion, up 25%, and $2.3 billion in free cash flow as AMAT fell roughly 40% from its June…

AMAT $375B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…

JOBY $6.4B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

NewtekOne: Pivot Towards Holding Guaranteed Loans A Good Strategy

NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…

NEWT $337M

Stephen Nemo Sep 11

OFRM · long

Once Upon A Farm Pbc

Once Upon a Farm (OFRM) makes organic baby food, smoothies and kid snacks using high-pressure processing instead of heat pasteurization.

OFRM $695M

Value Investors Club May 27

Earnings Updates and A Software Shot in the Dark

Ategrity Specialty’s 30% premium growth, stable reserves and $50 million buyback target an undervalued, thinly traded specialty insurer.

ASIC $1.3B

Cluseau Research Feb 20 1 click

Shift4 Company Podcast Episode Released!

Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…

FOUR $3.1B

Speedwell Memos Feb 19 1 click

GCI Liberty (GLIBK) Podcast & Presentation

GCI Liberty, Alaska’s dominant telecom operator, trades at 10x free cash flow after its Liberty Broadband spinout and has roughly $2…

GLIBA $980MLBRDA $5.2B

Hidden Gems Investing Feb 17

The Skills AI Can’t Replace

Duolingo is presented as an AI-resilient opportunity after SaaS stocks sold off on fears that coding tools will compress software moats,…

DUOL $7BTEAM $49B

Modern Value Investing Feb 15

The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04

Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…

VIST $7.8B

Treasure Hunting Feb 15

Airbnb 4Q25: Business Update

Airbnb’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $2.8 billion and GBV 16%, while product improvements and AI spending target booking conversion…

ABNB $90B

Speedwell Memos Feb 14 2 clicks

Adobe Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)

Adobe trades at 14x free cash flow after a 60% decline despite growth, with AI, its business-model transition and creative-software…

ADBE $99B

Speedwell Memos Feb 12

After Trade Review, and Earnings Mention Market Thoughts

SNAP Family Center was omitted from Snap’s earnings call, validating a 50-cent Kalshi NO contract and informing a machine-learning model…

SNAP $9.5B

First Strike Research Feb 10

XPEL's Manufacturing Build-Out

XPEL plans to spend $75 million to $150 million on manufacturing, targeting 52-54% gross margins and high-20s EBIT margins by 2028.

XPEL $1.3B

Hidden Gems Investing Feb 10

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Fierce_beast on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Trevor Scott on X

Myles on X

Trevor Scott on X

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