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Saturday, September 12, 2026

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@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

This is obviously unsustainable. The larger the gap, the worse the crash. Semis are printing cash now - but for a buyer and seller relationship to be healthy over a long time, everyone, both sides, needs to make $. I think $AMZN can make $ because their flagship business sells compute capacity and their capex ramp has funded more capacity to sell. $META can work because their flagship biz benefits from internal AI and they may in fact have excess compute capacity to sell - which is a positive pivot. $GOOGL is less clear to me. Their flagship biz is soaking up internal compute because new entrants in search, gPT for one, have $750B in capex earmarked - not to sell compute but to improve their own frontier capabilities. At the same time, $GOOGL's external compute biz is going to do great - but in this theater they are also competing with AMZN/MSFT etc. So for $GOOGL there's no pivot opportunity akin to $META and there's 2x the capex need as the arms race accelerates for both internal and external needs.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$DHR move this week is odd. I know its trading off $TMO today but the bioprocessing is the bigger piece to DHR and those sales/guide were disappointing and you saw weak action from https://t.co/sj9MDhumCh today off their numbers and even $RGEN trading off. $165 - $190 in two days this week seems off. Maybe the initial flush was over done, but hard to argue this business deserves to trade back at 200 where it came into earnings after seeing the bioprocessing commentary. Seems like a fade at 190

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