Thursday, September 10, 2026

One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale

AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.

APP $104B

The Value Road Sep 10 5 clicks

Sep 10 TDG $61B

TransDigm is still in it for the money

scuttleblurb 1 click

Sep 9 META $1.7T

First Impression of Muse

MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Sep 10 1 click

David Orr on X

Does anyone know a way for an $IBKR account to sell the Oracle default swaps, and have those still been going up a ton? IE: I want to get paid if Oracle does not in fact go bust.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

@tomicki I can't even see what possibly resolves this for many, many years. Could see the big three $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN hit insane market caps.

@RagingVentures Sep 10 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Very well stated, short $PANW https://t.co/QcEgBbM9Mg

@RagingVentures Sep 10

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Brin owns at least two jets as well as a 466 foot yacht that is regularly seen cruising around the Mediterranean. Does he really have the intensity and focus to lead $GOOG’s efforts in AI? Start-ups are a young man’s game. (I also think Larry Page was more critical than Brin in Google’s early product and tech architecture successes)

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.

@leevalueroach Sep 10

Lee Roach on X

I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.

@negligible_cap Sep 10

Negligible Capital on X

*MICROSOFT PLANS TO TRIPLE DATA CENTER CAPACITY TO 38 GIGAWATTS $MSFT planning on having more than 38 GW of capacity up in 2032, compared to 12 GW currently. Jeez man we might be early

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…

UNP $161BNSC $71B

scuttleblurb Sep 9 3 clicks

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…

DELL $366B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 9 1 click

Dyne Therapeutics Remains A Buy Even As Novartis Trial Failure Hits DM1 Class

Dyne Therapeutics fell 16% after Novartis’ HARBOR failure raised doubts that RNA-targeting biomarker gains translate into functional…

NVS $268B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 9 1 click

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 8 6 clicks

Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years

Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.

QCOM $203B

Khaveen Investments Sep 8

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $79BAIG $39B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 6 clicks

UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 7 5 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

PEP $182B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 7 7 clicks

Check Point Software: AI Could Change The Growth Equation

Check Point Software’s AI-centric cybersecurity platform could lift revenue growth to 10%, supporting a $166 intrinsic value estimate…

CHKP $14B

Hong Chew Eu Sep 7

APG · long

Api Group CORP

APi Group’s mix of specialty contracting segments complicates a conventional contractor valuation.

APG $16B

Value Investors Club Apr 28 10 clicks

LVMH: 4Q25 Business Recap

LVMH’s 2025 revenue fell 5% and operating profit 9% amid forex and luxury weakness, while Fashion & Leather Goods improved in the second…

LVMUY $226B

Speedwell Memos Jan 28 2 clicks

Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings

Netflix’s proposed Warner Bros. acquisition could preserve or expand theatrical releases, supporting cinema chains such as Cinemark and…

NFLX $511BFCNCA $23B

Base Hit Investing Jan 25

Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar

Kalshi’s 76% contract price for Starbucks saying “condiment bar” on its next earnings call exceeds a transcript-based estimate of 31.6%.

SBUX $109B

First Strike Research Jan 22

Affirm (AFRM): Buy Now, Cry Later

Affirm, a $25 billion buy now, pay later lender, faces a short thesis comparing its model with failed subprime monoline finance companies.

AFRM $24B

Kerrisdale Capital Jan 21

Portfolio Update - January 2026

Portfolio update exits The Trade Desk, QXO and Park Hotels, then adds Tencent at a 35% discount, SoftBank for AI exposure and HelloFresh at…

QXO $12B

Modern Value Investing Jan 20

FTAI Power and QXO's next aquistion

FTAI Power plans to convert CFM56 jet engines into 25 MW gas turbines for data centers, targeting 100 annual units and $750 million to $1…

FTAI $20BQXO $12B

Kairos Research Jan 20 1 click

Coupang Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)

Coupang’s former strategy VP discusses Taiwan expansion, 1P-versus-3P economics, margins and competitive risks as CPNG trades 35% below its…

CPNG $26B

Speedwell Memos Jan 20 1 click

Uber Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)

Uber’s $50 billion revenue and $4.5 billion operating profit reflect a turnaround from years of subsidy-heavy growth, with autonomous…

UBER $145B

Speedwell Memos Jan 16 2 clicks

Operating Leverage as a Source of Market Inefficiency

Mastercard added $2.6 billion of revenue from 2005 to 2010 while expenses rose only $0.3 billion, illustrating how extreme operating…

MA $487B

Lewistown Capital Jan 7

Thursday, September 10, 2026

David Orr on X

David Orr on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

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