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Thursday, September 10, 2026

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@orrdavid

David Orr on X

$SOXX made a sharp dive in from June 30th to July 29th. The fact that it still hasn't recovered a month and a half later makes this look a lot more like a 2000's twilight-before-the-collapse market than a 1999 bear trap. Put that another way: On a sharp sell off, you can easily point to technical / positioning factors being the cause. Situational Awareness's blow up could have been a textbook example. But it's just not working that way. In fact, we had a sharp sell off, and there's seemingly no fuel for a rebound despite AI improvement news seeming to come out strong. Markets have wisdom to them. It's worth listening, bull or bear. Right now, the set up seems super bearish, like the market knows there is a problem with AI. And the most likely problem I see is that there's simply no sites available to build more electricity-hungry compute centers. Someone smart I talked with recently pointed out politics could block AI as well ... which could exasberate that problem a bit by individual small local areas or by state and possibly by country. But I still think the root issue here is just not enough electricity, there's simple a hard barrier in the world of atoms that takes many years to resolve.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 6 clicks
GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $247B
Hated Moats

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $99B
Net Interest

Adobe Business History

Adobe built PostScript, Photoshop and PDF into desktop-publishing standards, using free Acrobat Reader and integrated Creative Suite tools…

ADBE $99B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Deep Dive: XPEL

XPEL sells paint-protection film and DAP cutting software, using 90,000-plus vehicle templates to win share from 3M and Eastman.

XPEL $1.2B
Rebound Capital 1 click

On the Horizon

A tiny defense supplier trades at roughly 6.5x estimated normalized EBIT as military-program volumes rise and a strategic review considers…

AIRI $12M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

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