NYSE
EVTL
5 stories
$88M Market cap · 2026-10-09
$EVTL Reducing the exercise price of options awards is so grifty. It eliminates the alignment with shareholders those grants were intended to create in the first place. In the end this dogshit, low-governance co is going to zero so it may not matter here but as a general proposition don't do this!
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
It should be no surprise that as the reality of commencing operations gets closer, investors are less doe-eyed about $EVTL https://t.co/4Q8ETMvQLM
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