Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

Sep 9 UNP $161B

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

scuttleblurb 3 clicks

Sep 9 DELL $366B

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Cestrian Capital Research. 1 click

From X

@evantindell Aug 3

Evan Tindell on X

Finally got a chance to go through the $UMG earnings... Obviously, a disappointment on revenue growth and margins, which saw the stock drop like 20%. Subscription revenue was 6.7% organically, and the street was looking for >9%. So, a big miss. Still, I think things should improve. Apple, Spotify, Amazon, and YouTube music have all raised prices this year, and a portion of that will go to UMG. CFO Matt Ellis said on the call that these prices and "better market share to start the third quarter" make them "cautiously optimistic" (really sticking his neck out there!!) that growth will improve in H2 of 2026. Interestingly, Warner Music $WMG managed to grow revenue 12% in CC and adjusted OIBDA by 24%, so clearly this is a UMG-only problem, at least for this quarter. $UMG trades at 14x earnings on a NTM basis now... this seems pretty reasonable if not downright cheap for a company that has grown EBIT from EUR 1b in 2019 to around 2b today (11% organic EBITDA CAGR). We own this through Bollore, which currently has an NAV of just above 11 EUR by my calculation vs a last price of under 4 EUR. Notably, JPM thinks new AI tiers in Spotify and Apple Music will drive ARPU growth of 300 bps per year. Their price target was 48 EUR prior to the recent earnings release...

@irbezek Aug 3

Ian Bezek on X

Brazilian election. Who wins, and what's your view on $EWZ?

@TheBenSchmark Aug 2 1 click

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Semrush found that Reddit citations collapsed in ChatGPT through 2025. And in AI responses in general. Different reasons have been proffered, but I for one am glad SEO spam and human-generated nonsense is being weighted less $RDDT https://t.co/J1qIjVsvlO

@orrdavid Aug 1 4 clicks

David Orr on X

@FixedIncQuant @nickgiva1 $IBIT has a $46 billion AUM.

@RagingVentures Aug 1

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Any fundamental views on $RH here? I’ve been recently trying on the short as a trade into the $180 level with some success, feels like it has squeezed higher due to de-grossing/de-leveraging. Other building names are very weak with 10-year testing 5%.

@RagingVentures Aug 1 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Sold my $BILL on this 50%+ run off the lows, and continue to actively trade around core $HUBS and $WDAY positions by regularly writing calls or shorting puts (and sometimes boxing my longs). The volatility has been insane. Sold $ESTC for now. Also, I’m now short a small amount of $ADBE, $NOW, $TEAM, $CXM and $YEXT into July’s de-grossing/de-leveraging squeeze.

@RagingVentures Aug 1 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Another ugly quarter at $MO. Still struggling to gain traction in the all-important new smokeless markets, while Marlboro bleeds market share and overall smoking volumes continue to collapse. This has been a good trading short with all of the funky rotation and factor moves. https://t.co/SK4WwXsiiZ

@RagingVentures Aug 1

Raging Capital Ventures on X

OpenAI “ARR” apparently run rating at $60 b, and (for the most part) they haven’t yet monetized their 1 billion weekly consumer actives. Bullish $ORCL. https://t.co/pBDIrTTAqV

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 8 6 clicks

Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years

Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.

QCOM $203B

Khaveen Investments Sep 8

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $75BAIG $39B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 6 clicks

Pinterest: Underlying Growth Remains Stronger Than The Market Thinks

Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…

PINS $10B

Richard Durant Sep 7 2 clicks

UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 7 5 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

CELH $7.1BPEP $179B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 7 8 clicks

On Holding $ONON: I Bought the Shoes First, Then the Stock

On Holding $ONON combines a high-margin direct-to-consumer footwear model with replacement-driven demand, after Q2 2026 sales rose 21.6%…

ONON $9.9B

Substack von Philipp Sep 7 5 clicks

Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C September 7, 2026

U.S. CPI and PPI headline the September 7 week as the S&P 500 holds key averages, Bitcoin faces $82,000 resistance and gold tests its…

COIN $51B

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Sep 6 2 clicks

X-Energy Could Be Building One Of Nuclear Energy's Most Valuable Platforms

X-energy targets $1.8 billion in annual revenue and more than 42% gross margins by 2032 through reactor IP, project services and…

XE $4.7B

Simple Investment Ideas Sep 6 2 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…

APP $104B

Capitalist Letters Sep 6 6 clicks

FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $19B

Value Investors Club Jun 11

The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does

Rayonier’s 4.0 million acres are valued at $393 an acre after other assets, versus $1,200 to $1,800 cutover-land sales, framing the timber…

RYN $6B

The Value Road Sep 4 27 clicks

Looking For A 2027 Defense Play: Honeywell Fits The Bill

HONA $53B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 4 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…

CELH $7.1BCOST $398B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 4 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA

Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…

VEEV $42BCRM $191B

scuttleblurb Sep 3 24 clicks

Intuit: The Recovery Is Only Beginning

Intuit targets 9.1% FY2027 revenue growth and 23% EPS growth after Q4 revenue rose 13.7%, supported by Global Business Solutions, Credit…

INTU $81B

Treading Softly Sep 3 5 clicks

Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows

CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.

CME $98B

First Strike Research Sep 3 16 clicks

Selling Where They Ain’t

Dollar General’s Q2 FY26 comparable sales rose 3.5%, beating Walmart U.S.

DG $27B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 3 1 click

Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal

Chevron committed $7 billion to expand Venezuelan output as record U.S. production and elevated oil prices lifted Q2 earnings.

CVX $403B

Bay Area Ideas Sep 2 3 clicks

Notes from a Dasher Shift, and the Drone Delivery Future

DoorDash’s delivery economics rely on customer tips and flexible labor, while rising courier costs make autonomous delivery central to…

DASH $84B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 2 5 clicks

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Evan Tindell on X

Ian Bezek on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

David Orr on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

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