Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Little Owl Research on X
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
Little Owl Research on X
1/ So first things first, $HHH missed on top and bottom line. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. Value was created for shareholders and I'll briefly explain why...
catechwilliams on X
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
catechwilliams on X
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
Little Owl Research on X
Here is a little pricing guide for any of you looking into $HHH at the moment. Credit to @mfwarder for the format. https://t.co/MeZP5qopmR
Little Owl Research on X
@marginofdanger @BillAckman Additionally, $HHH as a pure play MPC is much more valuable than the sum of its parts. Though the market doesn't understand it well at the moment it will likely come to appreciate it more as it grows and produces substantial FCF. Patience is key here.
catechwilliams on X
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4BJXN $9B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $78BMA $496B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $276B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $246BMCK $100B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.4B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.5B
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