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Tuesday, September 8, 2026

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel model.

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

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@marginofdanger 1 click

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Ackman's closed end fund $PSUS will begin trading on Wednesday. For every 5 shares of PSUS, IPO investors (only) will get 1 share of $PS (the GP). It sounds like the PSUS offering will be 100mm shares at $50/share or $5 bn. Ackman thought this was going to be a $10 bn offering and he previously was targeting $25 bn or some ridiculous amount. The PSUS IPO investors will end up owning 20mm shares or 5% of PS (based on 400mm pf s/o). I expect that PSUS, like many closed end funds, will settle at a 5-10% discount to NAV, implying a trading price of $45-47.50/share. PS will begin trading as well (via a direct listing) and I anticipate a valuation of $5-10bn, implying that the PSUS IPO investors will get a "bonus" of $250-500mm on the $5 bn IPO or 5-10%. Therefore their loss on the PSUS shares should be mostly offset by the free shares in PS. Given this is a direct listing, I expect WILD price movements in PS stock and would stay far away from that one. I used $10 bn as the high end valuation for PS because that is where investors invested back a year or so ago (predicated upon significant growth in AUM), but I tend to believe that was a high watermark and not realistic given that Ackman can't seem to raise $. In terms of $PSUS, I don't see a compelling reason to own this at 90-95% of NAV. If you put a 15x on the 2% fee, that alone is a 30% drag. Also, Ackman has high volatility and there is no prospect to ever get repaid (and no incentive for Ackman to do so). Like $PSH.LN I would personally only step into $PSUS at a 25-30%+ discount to NAV and probably not in any real size.

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Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

CELH $7.1BPEP $179B
TSOH Investment Research 8 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…

APP $104B
Capitalist Letters 6 clicks
MGRC · long

Mcgrath Rentcorp

McGrath RentCorp's conservatively financed hard assets, pricing growth and a struggling competitor, WSC, underpin the long thesis.

MGRC $2.7B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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