Notes from a Dasher Shift, and the Drone Delivery Future
DoorDash’s delivery economics rely on customer tips and flexible labor, while rising courier costs make autonomous delivery central to scaling GOV 4 to 5 times.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
From X
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $106MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 BLBD $2BMMS $3B
- Protean Funds June 2026 CINT $224MIDDWF $9.5B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5BDGXX $372M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81BHDIH
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $44BBABA $268B
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Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
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MU 2026-08-28 SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
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Prakhar Agarwal, CFA 6 clicks
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
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Capital Connoisseur 3 clicks
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
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CBRS 2026-08-26 Sizing Up Cerebras Systems: Why Its Latency Moat Makes It A Buy For Aggressive Growth Investors
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Star Investments 4 clicks
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…
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