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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 10183 stock ideas· 217 writers·
15,197 views· 7,218 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over cannabis, craft beer and dealmaking.

STZ $21B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

From X

@stockgutter

SG on X

I am a skeptic of the current quantum companies but cannot ignore that $IONQ just doubled its cash hoard from $2B to $4B, selling shares/prefunded warrants at $40 (above market) covered 2:1 by warrants with a strike at $69.46. Not a bad move imo. While I agree with critics that the warrants are a bit oppressive, shitcos will have to pay up one way or another to raise $$ in size. There are worse structures. No position in IonQ rn, but considering selling long-dated calls in the 2x inverse ETF $IONZ - I think the underlying will participate strongly in any junk bounce towards year end.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$NVDA's falling unit share in China's data-centre AI chip market overstates how much business Nvidia has lost to Huawei. Three things explain why. 1. IDC counts units, and did not say whether that count includes the Blackwell parts barred from China and reportedly smuggled in. Chinese demand also reaches Nvidia outside China. Xiaomi or ByteDance rents a Blackwell cluster in Malaysia from a local cloud provider. That is Nvidia revenue from a Chinese buyer that never appears as a Chinese unit. So Nvidia's share of what Chinese buyers spend on AI compute is higher than its share of counted units. 2. Huawei's volume growth is real, and memory explains how. Huawei cannot get enough stacked high-bandwidth memory, the HBM that top-end AI chips need. The 910C ran on an older grade, HBM2E, that Huawei had been able to mass procure. The new 950PR uses lower-bandwidth single stack memory instead of stacked HBM, so the 950PR does not depend on HBM supply. Each chip moves data more slowly, and Huawei can make many more of them. Also, we expect 950DT to ramp up quite quickly alongside 960DT coming earlier in 1Q27 instead of original 4Q27 timeline due to Huawei's own HBM variant that is able to ramp up production quicker. 3. So Nvidia's drop is not Nvidia failing to supply China. In our view, it has three causes: US export rules that bar its best parts, Beijing promoting domestic chips and requiring approval to import Nvidia's compliant ones, and a 950 series that beats the 910 series it replaces and is production-wise attractive for model serving. For Nvidia, where Chinese compute spend goes matters more than the China unit count, and much of it still goes to Nvidia hardware, in China or in Malaysia.
@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility) A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial. It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand. Q: On pricing power: A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight. (Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press) Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual - TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations. - Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins. TLDR: - No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing. - On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand: $TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand. During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing. Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.

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