Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Latest News

Market capOver $50M
All Over $50MOver $300MOver $2BOver $10B
All Under $1BUnder $10BUnder $100BUnder $500B
SectorsAll
Filter by sector
Monday, October 19, 2026· 10304 stock ideas· 219 writers·
19,671 views· 9,078 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $562M
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I first wrote up an AI data center company that rents out $NVDA GPUs to AI startup companies on April 15, 2026, when it still traded as a SPAC at $10.70/share, just above its ~$10.60 trust value. The merger was a success, and the stock peaked at $39.20/share on June 1st. Now it trades below its SPAC price. That company is Boost Run $BRUN, which has fallen to $8.89/share, down 77.3% from its peak, even after it announced its largest disclosed contract on October 6 (worth $525.6M). The three larger listed GPU clouds have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 16 close: → CoreWeave $CRWV: Down 55.5% to $61.39/share. → $IREN: Down 60.2% to $26.99/share. → Nebius $NBIS: Down 42.3% to $165.47/share. So $BRUN fell with the group, but further than all three. I’d blame the drop from $39.20 on two causes that have nothing to do with $BRUN’s core operations: (1) higher rates and borrowing costs, and (2) $BRUN’s float growing ~3.1x, which was expected once its lockup ended and its warrants were called. Yet the business carries less risk than it did as a SPAC: → Contracts: $1.61B with disclosed terms and TCV over $2.6B, including $1.43B signed since my April write-up. → Customers: Thinking Machines Lab (the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati) and Cohere make up 61.9% of the $1.61B on three- to five-year terms, after three customers made up 75.9% of 2025 revenue, led by RunPod, a GPU cloud platform, at 44.5%. → Year-end target: If Thinking Machines’ GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five disclosed contracts running by year-end cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the $400M ARR target. → Merger: Closed on May 8, 2026, with zero redemptions. → Balance sheet: The merger proceeds paid off its short-term bridge loans, the going-concern language is gone, and pro forma cash is $191.8M, up from the $108M I used in my June 3 update, right after the merger. But $BRUN still has to get the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31: → To reach the $1.0-1.2B of GPU spending management expects for 2026, $BRUN has to deploy $663-863M of GPU servers in H2 2026, 2.3-3.0x its cash and contracted prepayments. → CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q2 call that $BRUN is working on new ways to finance the build, but I found no new facility, lender, or term sheet in its filings or press releases from August 14 to October 16. → $BRUN’s named customers are private AI startups without investment-grade ratings, so its contracts are harder to borrow against. → If lessors funded 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5% (as in H1 2026), $BRUN would need $199-259M of its own cash for the build, more than its $191.8M of pro forma cash. → Both 10-Qs came late, after notices of late filing on May 26 and August 14, and $BRUN still reports three material weaknesses, the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls. → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos controls 87% of the vote. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. So did the thesis break, or just the stock? That’s what I answer in my new ~5k-word update on $BRUN, including my bear, base, and bull cases (Excel model included).
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think the foundry business at Intel ($INTC) may be closer than the market assumes. In our view, the key question is whether outside customers can design and produce chips with Intel. That is hard because Intel built its design rules, software and processes for its own teams. Two developments help. 1) Intel's 12nm partnership with $UMC brings experience serving external customers and a more customer-friendly design kit. 2) Musk has said Terafab plans to use Intel's 14A process, with Tesla and SpaceX building and running the fabs themselves. We see that as an important external test of 14A. Intel still has to prove yields, volume and schedules, and Terafab's commercial terms remain unclear. We continue to hold our Intel position and remain bullish, but not enough to add to it for now.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

“There's only 10 ways to do fraud.” @hkuppy and @herbgreenberg on why the same patterns keep showing up, and the thin line between a visionary and a fraud. Carvana $CVNA is a good example. A few years ago, it looked like the company might run out of money, with Herb joking that its car vending machines could become trampoline parks or indoor skydiving towers. Instead, the stock recovered and access to capital reopened. Being right about a questionable business doesn’t help much if it can keep financing itself.

Investor Letters

All letters

Free Recaps of the best new stock ideas, delivered every morning.

Read past recaps

Do You Trust Apple?

Apple’s HomeView strategy ties Siri, privacy and smart-home control to consumer trust in its vision for the home.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 2 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 11 clicks
NXPI · long

Nxp Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors, the global automotive-chip leader, has delivered 12.5% compounded EPS growth and is presented as a long investment.

NXPI $57B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

EVC $606M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

Can AI Read the Market?

Gemini’s chart-only analysis favors Nutrien, soybeans, nickel and sugar, while rating Constellation Software a sideline despite its 40%…

NTR $33B
AmsterdamStocks

Affirm (AFRM): Buy Now, Cry Later

Affirm, a $25 billion buy now, pay later lender, faces a short thesis comparing its model with failed subprime monoline finance companies.

AFRM $24B
Kerrisdale Capital

Have a source we’re missing? Send your pick

Recent recaps

Latest recap

Sunday, October 18 32 stock ideas
  • What Lies Beneath: The Developer Building a Data Center on a Former Army Dump Laced With Munitions and Carcinogens Hunterbrook
  • DigitalOcean CEO: ‘We are not going to be extraordinarily leveraged like some others’ The Technology Letter
Read the recap

All recaps

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 108

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 52 of 239

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

89 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.

Anything we’re missing?

Send us a pick