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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 7118 stock ideas· 217 writers·
16,031 views· 7,476 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens auction take rates.

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

The AI memory squeeze is hitting Android chip suppliers harder than the phone market. Counterpoint says global smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the lowest third quarter since 2012. AI data centres are taking more of the memory supply, and higher DRAM and NAND prices left most phone makers short. 1. The fall is in cheaper phones. Xiaomi's shipments fell more than 30%, and OPPO's and vivo's more than 20%, as they cut low-priced models and raised prices. Samsung's fell 3%, and Apple ($AAPL) reached a 22% share, its first third quarter above 20%. 2. Chip suppliers fell further than phone makers. In the second quarter, phone shipments fell 21%, while MediaTek's and Qualcomm's ($QCOM) phone chip shipments each fell more than 30%, per Counterpoint. 3. Qualcomm is exposed too. Counterpoint ties MediaTek's decline to its entry-level and mainstream chips, and Qualcomm's to its Snapdragon 600 and 400 lines. Qualcomm also lost some premium volume as Samsung used its own Exynos 2600 chip in base Galaxy S26 models in some regions. Samsung's Exynos shipments rose in the second quarter. The phone maker that held up best is making more of its own chips. The third-quarter phone data shows the same pattern, so I expect MediaTek's and Qualcomm's phone chip volumes to fall faster than phone shipments again when they report the quarter.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment" - Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years" - He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands. - "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence" - "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6" Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20". But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there. But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material: - "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand." - "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ) - "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal): - Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times) And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino. - Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying: "It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI. - Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital. But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth. - The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair) - Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade. This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan given he's running $AVGO. But Western media commentary narrowed this down to: - "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers". In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand. While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome. Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging. TLDR: - Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend - OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers. - Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. - Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates. Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.

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