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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The most interesting lesson Jensen Huang taught me And gave PTSD to Google executives over from his leadership at $NVDA: Was that if a critical material can be bought out for spare change eg. ~$400m (FY2028 Photonics-SOI revenue forecast for $SOI) And trigger tens of billions in economic impact to competitors for not securing supply: We're going to see game theory bottleneck supply procurement actually accelerate upstream through 2027, with or without him. I see Morgan Stanley's list highlighting CCL, ABF, PCBs, optical module components as interesting. However; I'd put it through my own narrower lens, especially focusing on smaller component cost chokepoints + bottlenecks that doesn't cost much to secure capacity over. Deleveraging/negative sentiment is indiscriminately moving the theme up and down together, so hard to argue individual fundamentals at this point. Reflecting on 2026, I also prob need to be more selective of companies entering 2027: But there's going to be a lot of outsized opportunities in bottlenecks... as new architectures like NPO/CPO emerge across the ecosystem.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Where tf did all those crap accounts and "analysts" who pitched buying $CCXI (now $AGLT), pumpers, and degens go? I thought I was regarded for not buying the only humanoid listed company in the U.S!!! ... At least according the 4-5 accounts that blocked me for calling out their sh*t DD or simply disagreeing w/their thesis. Thought it was supposed to run up 500% post SPAC like FinTwit claimed??! Thought I was completely missing the point?? "99% of households haven't heard of the stock. Imagine when they do." That was another one of the "arguments" I heard quite often. 😅 Even offered my full deep dive for completely free to read. 🤷‍♂️
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…

Investor Letters

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
VITL · long

Vital Farms INC

Vital Farms is a long idea after bird flu-driven egg supply losses coincided with a structural shift.

VITL $389M
Value Investors Club

MSFT Q1 FY6/27 Earnings Review

Microsoft Q1 FY27 revenue rose 19% to $92.3 billion as Azure grew 48%; $39.4 billion of capex funded AI and cloud infrastructure.

MSFT $3.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

ORCL Update

Oracle rose about 12% intraday on October 28, 2026 as AI infrastructure and cloud-demand sentiment improved and credit-spread concerns…

ORCL $391B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

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